At a Glance
- 2025 was the third-warmest year since modern records began
- Global temperatures averaged 1.47 °C above pre-industrial levels
- U.S. emissions rose 2.4% amid federal policy reversals
- Why it matters: The world has neared or breached the 1.5 °C Paris target for three straight years, intensifying extreme weather and political debate.
The planet just closed its third-hottest year on record, according to data released by Copernicus, the European Union’s climate monitoring service. The finding extends an ominous streak: the past 11 years have been the 11 warmest ever measured. In 2025, the global average temperature reached roughly 1.47 °C (2.65 °F) above the 1850-1900 baseline used by scientists to track human-driven warming.
Record Heat Blankets the Globe
Annual surface air temperatures were above the long-term average across 91% of the planet, according to Samantha Burgess, strategic lead on climate for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates Copernicus. Speaking at a news conference, Burgess said the main driver is the continuing accumulation of greenhouse gases, “dominated by the burning of fossil fuels.”
World leaders pledged in the 2015 Paris Agreement to keep warming “well below” 2 °C and pursue efforts to cap it at 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet global temperatures have met or eclipsed that lower threshold for three consecutive years, effectively extinguishing hopes of staying under the symbolic line.
“Exceeding a three-year average of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels is a milestone that none of us wished to see,” said Mauro Facchini, head of Earth observation for the European Commission’s Directorate General for Defence Industry and Space. “The news is not encouraging, and the urgency of climate action has never been more important.”
U.S. Agencies Set to Release Separate Tally
American agencies are expected to publish their own 2025 climate figures on Wednesday. NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issue independent reports, relying on slightly different methods to calculate the global annual average. While their exact numbers may differ, the trend across all major datasets is identical: rapid, dangerous warming that may be outpacing earlier scientific expectations.
The European results land amid sweeping U.S. policy reversals. The Trump administration announced last week that it will withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the treaty that underpins global cooperation on the issue. That move will leave the U.S. without a meaningful seat in future climate negotiations. The administration also said it will halt support for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the body that produces the world’s most authoritative assessments of climate science.
Following a mandatory one-year waiting period, the United States will formally exit the Paris Agreement later this month.
Federal Rollbacks Meet Rising Emissions
President Donald Trump has repeatedly called climate change a “con job.” His administration has moved to dismantle or downplay major climate reports, including the National Climate Assessment, and is stripping the Environmental Protection Agency of its authority to regulate planet-warming gases. At the same time, officials have pushed coal plants to stay open-coal being the most carbon-intensive fuel-and reversed numerous Biden-era climate initiatives, such as federal subsidies for electric vehicles.
Those policy shifts coincide with a 2.4% rise in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions during 2025, according to preliminary estimates from the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm. Analysts attribute the uptick mainly to high natural gas prices, energy-hungry data center expansion, and a cooler-than-average winter rather than to Trump-era rules, many of which have yet to take full effect. Rhodium still projects future declines in U.S. emissions, largely because wind and solar are undercutting fossil fuel prices in many markets, though the firm now expects smaller reductions than it forecast before Trump took office.
Billion-Dollar Disasters Mount
Heat trapped by greenhouse gases is amplifying extreme weather. Last year saw 23 weather and climate disasters that each caused at least $1 billion in damage, according to an analysis released last week by the nonprofit Climate Central. Those events resulted in 276 deaths and $115 billion in losses, making 2025 the third-costliest year on record for such disasters.
While human-caused emissions remain the dominant driver of rising temperatures, natural patterns also play a role. La Niña-marked by cooler-than-normal waters in the central Pacific-tends to tamp down global readings, whereas El Niño boosts them. A La Niña phase developed late in 2025, but scientists at NOAA expect a transition to neutral conditions early this year.
Political Fault Lines Ahead of 2026 Vote
Despite mounting climate impacts, polling from the Environmental Voter Project shows most Americans do not view global warming as a partisan issue. What that means for voter behavior in the 2026 midterm elections remains uncertain, but campaign strategists are already tracking whether extreme heat, wildfires, and floods could sway key races.
For now, the numbers released by Copernicus underscore a stark reality: every fraction of a degree of additional warming intensifies hazards for communities, economies, and ecosystems worldwide. With the 1.5 °C threshold slipping further from reach, pressure is mounting on governments, businesses, and investors to slash emissions far faster than current pledges require.
Key Takeaways
- Global temperatures in 2025 were 1.47 °C above the pre-industrial baseline
- The past 11 years rank as the hottest ever recorded
- U.S. climate pollution rose 2.4% last year amid federal deregulation
- 23 billion-dollar disasters killed 276 people and caused $115 billion in damage
- The U.S. will formally exit the Paris Agreement later this month
