> At a Glance
> – XRP reserves on Upbit have slid from 6.6 billion to under 6 billion tokens
> – A matching pattern in late 2024 preceded a $0.50 → $3.29 price surge
> – Binance has lost 300 million XRP since October, dropping to 2.68 billion reserves
> – Why it matters: Shrinking exchange supply reduces immediate sell pressure and has historically foreshadowed major upward moves
XRP is flashing a familiar on-chain signal: tokens are flooding out of exchange wallets at a pace last seen before last year’s explosive rally. Traders are watching reserves on Upbit and Binance shrink while prices attempt a recovery above $2.
Upbit Reserves Drop Again
In November 2024, Upbit’s XRP balance fell from 6.6 billion to under 6 billion, and the market responded with a rally from $0.50 to $3.29, analyst CW noted. Early January 2026 data show the same balance sliding once more, coinciding with a climb toward $2.30.
Smaller available supplies typically hint that holders are moving coins to private wallets, trimming immediate selling liquidity.
Binance Joins the Outflow Trend
Since October 2025, Binance has seen its XRP stash shrink by 300 million, falling from 3 billion to 2.68 billion.
| Exchange | October 2025 | January 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upbit | 6.6B XRP | <6B XRP | -600M+ |
| Binance | 3.0B XRP | 2.68B XRP | -300M |
During Binance’s draw-down, price initially slipped from $3 to $1.80, but has since rebounded above $2.
Mixed Technical Signals
XRP changed hands near $2.10 at press time, down 6% in a day yet up 16% over the week. The $2.28 level is capping advances for now.
CRYPTOWZRD flagged a potential double-top on the XRP/BTC chart:
> “A further decline from XRPBTC is still possible.”
Countering that bearish view, Ali Martinez highlights a TD buy signal, while XForceGlobal believes the token has finished a five-wave decline and could be starting a fresh uptrend. Their upside targets reach $5 with a stretch goal of $10-$20, though a dip toward $1.30-$1.50 remains possible.
Institutional Inflows Add Fuel
US-listed spot XRP ETFs recorded steady inflows into January, mirroring the exchange outflows and suggesting larger buyers are accumulating. CNBC labeled XRP the “hottest crypto trade of the year” after it outran Bitcoin and Ethereum in the first week of 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Exchange balances are falling on both Upbit and Binance, echoing the pre-rally setup from late 2024
- Price momentum flipped positive, but $2.28 resistance needs to break for another leg up
- Analysts are split between warnings of a double-top and projections toward $5+
- ETF inflows provide an additional demand tailwind
With supply on exchanges thinning and institutional vehicles absorbing coins, XRP is once again positioned for a potential volatility spike-provided bulls can overcome nearby technical hurdles.
