At a Glance
- XRP trades at $2.07 after pulling back from a weekly high of $2.41
- The token is bouncing off the 21-month EMA, echoing the 2017 setup that preceded a parabolic run
- Resistance sits at $2.26, where the Weekly 20 EMA and Gaussian mid-line converge
- Why it matters: A confirmed break above $2.26 could open the door to a measured-move target above $16.5, a 663% climb from current levels
XRP is drawing trader attention after revisiting the same 21-month exponential moving average that sparked its 2017 surge. With overhead resistance looming and mixed momentum signals flashing, the next few sessions could decide whether history repeats or fizzles.
2017 Fractal Re-Emerges
Analyst JD spotlighted the parallel on social media, noting that XRP has broken out of a multi-year triangle and is now retesting the 21-month EMA-an almost carbon copy of the 2017 structure that ultimately delivered January 2018 highs.
> “In 2017, we broke out from triangle, consolidated for over a year, retested 21M EMA… then parabolic in Jan 2018,” JD wrote.
The token currently holds above the indicator, raising odds that buyers could follow the prior playbook if support remains intact.
Rally Stalls at $2.41
Momentum built quickly last week when ETF inflows accelerated and exchange balances dropped, catapulting XRP from below $1.90 to $2.41 in seven days. The move lost steam near the $2.26 confluence, where the Weekly 20 EMA and Gaussian channel mid-line align.
- Price at press time: $2.07
- 24-hour volume: $2.88 billion
- Weekly change: -3%
ChartNerd summarized the technical hurdle:
> “$XRP has a job on its hands. Fail to push up/break them, then we resort back to multi-month support.”
$16.5 Target on the Radar
Structure-focused analyst Javon Marks pointed out that the 2017 breakout not only met its measured-move objective but overshot it. Applying the same math today yields a target above $16.5, translating into a potential 663% advance from the current quote.
> “With an almost exact structure replication and breakout happening, XRP can be in route to its measured move target above $16.5,” Marks said.
He cautioned that the projection excludes external market forces and relies purely on historical price geometry.
Mixed Near-Term Signals
CryptoWZRD flagged an indecisive daily candle close, emphasizing that a sustained move above $2.10 would flip the short-term bias bullish. The analyst added that Bitcoin’s next directional move is likely to act as a tailwind or headwind for the broader altcoin set.
Contrarian clues have also appeared:
- A gravestone doji may be forming, noted Ali Martinez, often interpreted as a reversal warning
- Whale transaction count spiked during the surge but has since cooled, according to News Of Losangeles, hinting that large holders are stepping back
Key Levels to Watch
| Level | Significance |
|---|---|
| $2.10 | Daily bull trigger cited by CryptoWZRD |
| $2.26 | Weekly 20 EMA + Gaussian mid-line resistance |
| $16.5 | Javon Marks’ measured-move target |
A convincing break above $2.26 on rising volume would likely confirm upside continuation toward the $3 psychological zone and possibly beyond. Failure, however, risks a deeper pullback to the $1.70-$1.80 demand region that has supported price since December.
Key Takeaways
- XRP’s 21-month EMA retest mirrors the 2017 fractal that led to a parabolic advance
- Resistance at $2.26 is the immediate obstacle; a close above it invalidates near-term bearish scenarios
- Measured-move math targets $16.5, though structural projections ignore macro conditions
- Market signals are split: whale activity has cooled and a potential gravestone doji warns of waning momentum
- Traders are watching $2.10 as the short-term bull/bear pivot, with Bitcoin’s direction set to influence the outcome
