At a Glance
- Bitcoin trades near $91,500 after failing to hold above $92,000
- Monthly RSI has dropped below 60, raising cycle-phase questions
- $94,000 marks next resistance; yearly open looms if support breaks
- Why it matters: Momentum shift could decide whether BTC resumes climb or slides toward $70,000
Bitcoin is hovering around $91,500 after a brief push above $92,000 fizzled, leaving traders focused on whether technical signals now favor bulls or bears.
The leading crypto is nursing a 1% weekly decline despite a fractional daily gain. Attention is fixed on the monthly Relative Strength Index, which has slipped under the 60 threshold that has historically separated mid-cycle strength from late-cycle fatigue.
RSI Breaks Key Level
Analyst Egrag Crypto had anticipated the gauge would stay above 60 and march toward the 80-90 zone that has marked prior tops. Instead, the reset leaves price action in limbo.
> “I expected RSI to hold above 60 and continue toward the 80-90 cycle-top zone,” Egrag said. “We are now in the neutral-to-slightly bearish zone. This area often acts as a decision zone, not a final verdict.”
The index is curling upward but has yet to reclaim 60. A decisive move back above that line would revive upside momentum; failure puts the focus on the next RSI support near 38 and raises the odds of deeper consolidation.
$92,000 Cap Holds Firm
BTC peaked at $92,400 on Monday as headlines flared about tensions between U.S. President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Sellers quickly emerged, dragging price back under the psychological $92,000 mark.
Until bulls achieve a daily close above that barrier, the probability of a pullback to the yearly open increases. A prior study flagged a potential slide toward $70,000 if downside pressure intensifies in coming weeks.
Short-term structure still offers some cushion:
- Bitcoin remains above an ascending trendline
- Price holds the 21-day moving average
- Support is intact near $90,000
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe told followers the path is straightforward: “Hold above the 21-Day MA and start grinding up towards the $94,000 resistance zone.”
Next Targets and Key Levels
A break past $94,000 would expose the $100,400 region and open room for extensions toward record highs. Conversely, losing the trendline and the 21-day average would weaken the bullish setup and shift focus to lower supports.
Trader CryptosBatman characterizes price action as “stuck inside a weekly inside bar pattern,” adding:
> “The market is super boring right now… price is moving within the highs and lows of the weekly candle from 17th November.”
Seasonal Tailwinds?
Daan Crypto Trades notes that first-quarter performance has historically favored Bitcoin except during the brutal 2018 bear market. “Q1 does tend to be quite good, especially in recent years,” he said, suggesting sideways chop could give way to stronger directional moves as the quarter unfolds.
For now, traders remain locked on two simple questions: can BTC defend support, or is another leg lower imminent?
Key Takeaways
- $91,500 is the current equilibrium; $92,000 is the immediate hurdle
- Monthly RSI under 60 signals neutral-to-bearish momentum until reclaimed
- $94,000 is the next resistance cluster, followed by $100,400
- Loss of the 21-day MA could accelerate a drop toward the yearly open and possibly $70,000
