Long-term Bitcoin holders are showing early signs of capitulation. The LTH SOPR metric has slipped below 1.0, indicating some holders are now selling at a loss.
At a Glance
- LTH SOPR below 1.0 signals long-term holders are selling at a loss
- 220,000 BTC shed by large wallets over the past year
- 30-day LTH SOPR sits at 1.18, well under the annual average near 2.0
- BTC trades in a tight $90,000-$92,400 range
Why it matters: A shift from accumulation to loss-taking by long-term holders can foreshadow broader market weakness.
Long-Term Holder Capitulation Begins
The LTH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for Bitcoin held more than six months briefly dipped under 1.0 on January 13. Market watcher Darkfost flagged the move, noting it usually surfaces during bear phases. These sellers are “younger” long-term holders who bought within the last nine months and are now underwater.
- SOPR above 1.0 = profit-taking
- SOPR below 1.0 = capitulation
Despite the brief sub-1.0 print, the 30-day average LTH SOPR remains 1.18, still profitable yet far below the yearly average near 2.0. The decline reflects shrinking realized profits across the cohort.
Whale Exodus Accelerates
Large investors continue to offload. Addresses holding 1,000-10,000 BTC have reduced positions by 220,000 BTC over the past twelve months. News Of Losangeles previously reported this as the fastest decline since early 2023.
| Holder Group | BTC Shed | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|
| 1k-10k wallets | 220,000 BTC | Past year |
Mixed Technical Signals
Conflicting narratives dominate the chart landscape:
- Bearish: LTH SOPR capitulation
- Bullish: Hidden divergence on weekly RSI, highlighted by chartist Egrag Crypto
- Neutral: Sell-Side Risk Ratio back to October 2023 levels, suggesting low-conviction distribution
Range-Bound Price Action
Bitcoin has oscillated between roughly $90,000 and $92,400 for the past week. A 1.7% uptick in the last 24 hours lifted price to about $92,200. Investor CW observes that short-term holders are nearing profitability.
Ted Pillows notes the market may face its eighth or ninth resistance test of the $92,000-$94,000 zone. Repeated failures could exhaust momentum, while a decisive breakout might spark fresh buying.
Key Takeaways
- Long-term holder behavior is tilting toward loss-taking for the first time in months
- Whale selling has removed 220,000 BTC from the richest wallets
- Technical patterns clash: capitulation vs. hidden bullish divergence
- A clear break above $94,000 or below $90,000 is likely to set the next directional move
