Bitcoin’s price climbed above $97,000 on January 14, its highest level since November, after a decade-old historical pattern deviated from its expected rhythm.
At a Glance
- BTC reclaimed $97,000 after touching $98,000 in a single week
- Traditional Green-Green-Green-Red cycle flipped to Green-Green-Red for 2023-2025
- Analyst Egrag Crypto assigns 55-65% chance 2026 ends green if key levels hold
- Why it matters: A green 2026 would signal the first four-year cycle to skip its post-halving red year, altering investor expectations
The shift challenges the long-standing four-year cycle that has governed Bitcoin’s yearly candles since 2012. Analyst Egrag Crypto noted that 2025’s red candle arrived a year early, breaking the historical Green-Green-Green-Red sequence that had aligned with halving events.
Pattern Disruption
Egrag framed the early red year as a cooling phase rather than a structural breakdown. He placed a 55% to 65% probability on 2026 closing green, provided the asset secures strong monthly finishes above $105,000 and maintains support near $90,000. A red 2026, carrying a 35% to 45% weight, would indicate an extended consolidation instead of a crash.
Chartist PlanB reinforced the view, writing on X that the four-year cycle should not be conflated with the stock-to-flow model. He emphasized that the post-halving year historically performs well, yet 2025 clearly missed that mark. PlanB added that stock-to-flow tracks average prices across a cycle, not local tops or bottoms. The current cycle’s average sits near $90,000, up from the prior cycle’s $34,000.
Price Action
Data from CoinGecko shows Bitcoin gained roughly 2% on the day, 8% on the week, and 12% over the last month. The move from just under $90,000 to $98,000 reclaimed several former resistance levels. Analyst Ted Pillows now eyes the 50-week exponential moving average near $97,500 as the next technical checkpoint after the asset regained the $95,000 region.
Short-term holders reacted quickly. Darkfost reported that more than 40,000 BTC in profits were sent to exchanges in a single day as price rebounded toward $97,000, hinting at caution following the late-2025 pullback.
Market Dominance
Bitcoin’s market share has climbed above 57%, while most large altcoins lagged, underscoring its relative strength during the rebound.
Key Takeaways
- The traditional Green-Green-Green-Red cycle has flipped to Green-Green-Red for 2023-2025
- A 2026 green candle is assigned 55-65% odds if BTC holds above $90,000 and closes above $105,000
- Short-term profit-taking surged as 40,000 BTC hit exchanges during the $97,000 retest
- Bitcoin dominance now exceeds 57%, outpacing large-cap altcoins
