At a Glance
- Ethereum is hovering at $3,200 after successfully retesting a former resistance trendline now acting as support
- Daily trading volume has surged 128% to over $27 billion, the highest in weeks
- On-chain metrics show network activity doubling, with daily active addresses topping 800,000
- Why it matters: A sustained hold above $3,085 could trigger the next leg toward $4,000, according to multiple analysts
Ethereum is trading inside a critical support zone, holding the $3,200 level after pulling back from an intraday high near $3,360. The price action represents a clean retest of a descending trendline that capped rallies for months and now serves as short-term support alongside the 20-day moving average.
Volume Spike Fuels Rebound Hopes
Spot and derivatives volumes have exploded. Data tracked by News Of Los Angeles shows daily turnover exceeding $27 billion, a 128% jump compared with the previous 24 hours. The surge marks the highest single-day volume since early January and has coincided with a 3.3% weekly gain.
Price stability near $3,200 is reinforcing bullish bias. Analyst BATMAN told followers that ETH is “moving as expected,” adding:
> “Right now, it’s retesting its previous bearish trendline, with added support from the 20-day MA. Solid retest setup here.”
Technical Structure Intact Above $3,085
The 50-day moving average has already flipped from resistance to support. According to analyst StockTrader_Max, the next major hurdle is the 200-day moving average, currently around $3,650. A daily close above that line would open room for a rapid extension toward the psychologically important $4,000 mark.
An Elliott Wave count circulating among chartists labels the November low as the end of a corrective second wave. If accurate, ETH would now be in a third-wave advance with an ideal target near $4,000. Invalidation sits at $2,980–$3,085, a band that has already absorbed several pullbacks.
On-Chain Metrics Flash Green
Network fundamentals are confirming price optimism. Glassnode statistics reveal that daily active addresses have doubled in two weeks, climbing back above 800,000. The jump suggests renewed retail and institutional interaction with the chain.
Staking inflows have also reached an all-time high. More than 158,000 ETH has flowed into exchange-traded products since December 29, representing over $500 million of net buying. The strongest accumulation cluster sits between $2,770 and $3,100, indicating that large buyers are comfortable entering at current levels.
Key Levels to Watch
| Support Range | Significance | Resistance Zone | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3,085 | Must-hold level for bulls | $3,400 | Range high, volume node |
| $3,200 | 20-day MA + trendline | $3,650 | 200-day moving average |
| $2,980 | Wave invalidation | $4,000 | Elliott wave target |
Analyst Ali Martinez summarized the stakes succinctly:
> “$3,085 – that’s the level Ethereum needs to hold to have a chance of a bullish breakout.”
Sideways Range May Resolve Soon
For more than two months, ETH has chopped between $2,600 and $3,400. Each test of the range extremes has attracted significant volume, creating sizable liquidity pockets. A decisive close above $3,400 on rising volume would likely trigger algorithmic buying programs targeting the $3,650 region first and the round $4,000 figure second.
Conversely, failure to defend $3,085 would negate the near-term bullish structure and expose the range low near $2,800, where the 100-day moving average is also converging.
ETF Flows Provide Tailwind
U.S.-listed Ethereum ETFs have recorded 12 consecutive days of net inflows. The cumulative purchase of 158,000 ETH has reduced available floating supply at a time when exchange reserves are already hovering near five-year lows. The supply-demand rebalancing has contributed to the recent compression in price volatility and set the stage for a potential expansion move.
Trader Positioning Reflects Caution
Derivatives markets show funding rates returning to positive territory but remain well below the overheated levels seen during the November relief rally. Open interest in perpetual futures has risen modestly, indicating that traders are adding exposure, yet leverage ratios are not at extremes. The setup suggests room for additional long accumulation without immediate risk of a forced unwind.
Macro Backdrop Offers Mixed Signals
While U.S. inflation data released last week came in slightly above expectations, Federal Reserve officials have maintained a balanced tone, leaving risk assets range-bound. Ethereum has exhibited a higher correlation with technology stocks over the past month, so broader market sentiment will likely influence whether bulls can conquer the $3,400 ceiling.
Key Takeaways
- ETH is retesting a former resistance trendline turned support at $3,200, a level that also coincides with the 20-day moving average
- Daily volume has surged 128% to $27 billion, the highest in weeks, signaling genuine buyer interest
- On-chain data is supportive: active addresses doubled to 800,000, ETFs absorbed $500 million in ETH, and staking hit a record
- Analysts view $3,085 as the line in the sand; holding it keeps $4,000 targets alive, while a slip opens $2,800
- A daily close above $3,400 could unleash momentum toward the 200-day MA at $3,650 and eventually the round $4,000 mark
