Bitcoin remains stuck in a corrective phase after failing to sustain the recent breakout attempt above the mid-$90,000s. The market is trading back inside a broader consolidation that has contained the price since the sharp November sell-off, while momentum has cooled and on-chain activity shows waning participation.
At a Glance
- Bitcoin is trading below its $95,000 resistance and is testing $90,000 support.
- Daily RSI has moved from near overbought to neutral, indicating a cooling of bullish momentum.
- On-chain active addresses are in a persistent downtrend, printing new lows.
- Why it matters: Traders face a range-bound market with a modest bearish tilt, and a break below $90,000 could open the way to a deeper retracement toward $80,000.
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a clear rejection of the $95,000-$97,000 resistance band and the declining 100-day moving average. The price has been pushed back toward the $90,000 support area, which coincides with the lower channel boundary and the origin of the most recent leg higher.
Daily Chart Dynamics
- Resistance: $95,000-$97,000 band and 100-day MA.
- Support: $90,000 zone.
- RSI: Moving from overbought to neutral.
- Potential outcome: If the $88,000-$90,000 region holds on a closing basis, a constructive higher-low scenario remains possible. A daily close below this zone would instead open the way for a deeper retracement toward the $80,000 demand region that marked November’s base.
The 4-hour chart tells a slightly different story. The price is breaking away from the upper boundary of the rising channel that has guided the advance from roughly $82,000, and is now on the verge of breaking the channel to the upside. The $90,000 zone, previously a pivot area and short-term demand, is now being retested after an intraday spike below.
4-Hour Timeframe
- Channel break: Price is moving beyond the upper boundary.
- RSI: Recovered from oversold but remains subdued.
- Scenario 1: Sustained acceptance above $90,000 would favor a gradual mean-reversion back toward the $95,000 mark within the channel.
- Scenario 2: Repeated failures at $90,000 or a clean breakdown below would confirm that sellers remain in control and increase the risk of a retest of the lower daily support around $80,000.
On-chain analysis provides a broader view of market participation. The 30-day EMA of Bitcoin active addresses has been in a persistent downtrend since the beginning of 2025 and is currently printing new lows while the price remains elevated near the $90,000 zone. This negative divergence suggests that recent price resilience has been driven more by existing market participants and derivatives activity than by broad new spot demand.
On-Chain Signals
| Metric | Trend | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day EMA of active addresses | Downtrend | Indicates waning new participation |
| Current price | Near $90,000 | Resilience may be short-lived |
| Divergence | Negative | Signals potential late-stage rally or corrective phase |
Historically, significant cyclical advances have coincided with a clear inflection higher in this activity metric. Until a similar turn appears, conditions continue to argue for cautious positioning, with greater emphasis on capital preservation and responsiveness to support/resistance levels rather than aggressive trend-following.
What This Means for Traders
- Range-bound bias: Expect consolidation within the $90,000-$95,000 band.
- Support test: Hold positions if the $88,000-$90,000 zone holds on a daily close.
- Risk of retracement: A daily close below $90,000 could trigger a move toward $80,000.
- On-chain caution: Low active-address activity signals that new spot demand may be limited.
- Strategic approach: Focus on capital preservation, avoid aggressive trend-following, and monitor key support/resistance levels.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is in a corrective phase, failing to break above $95,000.
- Daily RSI and on-chain activity point to cooling bullish momentum.
- A break below $90,000 could open the way to a deeper retracement toward $80,000.
- Traders should adopt a cautious, range-bound strategy and focus on capital preservation.
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