Bitcoin is trading just below its $90,000 ceiling, holding a critical support zone that could decide the next phase of its rally. A mix of macro-policy signals, leverage levels, and recent political news keeps traders on edge.
At a Glance
- Bitcoin hovers near $90,000, testing a key support range between $86,000 and $89,000.
- Leverage on Binance’s BTC market has climbed to 0.184, the highest since last November.
- The U.S. President’s sudden cancellation of Greenland tariffs sparked volatility, contributing to a 7% decline over the past week.
- Why it matters: Market participants watch for a Bank of Japan intervention that could lift risk sentiment and push Bitcoin higher.
Bitcoin’s recent pullback from the $95,000 high has left the asset largely below the $90,000 mark, a level that previously acted as support but is now turning into resistance. Each move toward the ceiling faces pressure, and the market structure shows no breakdown yet, though momentum has clearly slowed.
Key Support Zone Faces Pressure
The price has been oscillating around the $86,000-$89,000 band, a range that served as a base in December. A recent spike during a sharp decline has been followed by a slowdown in volume, indicating traders are waiting for confirmation before committing.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near the middle of its range, offering no clear signal of strength or weakness. This neutral technical backdrop means the next directional move could hinge on external factors.
Macro-Policy Influence
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MNF Fund, said:
> “Bitcoin holds the support level, though we’ll still need to wait until tomorrow. The Japanese Central Bank needs to intervene in the bond markets to put it to rest, and then, probably, risk-on assets will continue to move.”
His comment highlights the potential impact of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision. If the BOJ eases bond market pressure, risk-on assets-including cryptocurrencies-may see a rebound.
Market Sentiment Mixed Among Analysts
There’s no clear direction yet. Merlijn The Trader noted:
> “$87.7k is the line in the sand. If BTC doesn’t break it, you’re in for a surprise.”
This statement suggests a potential bounce if support holds, but also warns of a surprise move if it fails.
Egrag Crypto pointed out that the long-term structure remains intact and the current price is part of a broader range. Meanwhile, a bear flag pattern could target $60,000, though that scenario remains speculative.
Leverage and Whale Activity
Data from CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain shows the leverage ratio on Binance has climbed to its highest level since last November, reaching 0.184. This shift toward risk, with more traders using borrowed funds, often leads to sharper market swings.
Whale activity, however, remains muted. CW observed:
> “The BTC CVD indicator is calm. A buying wall has formed at 86k, and a selling wall exists around 100k.”
They added that much of the current activity appears automated, noting, “Whales have not yet made any significant moves.”
Political Shock Factor
News that President Trump canceled planned tariffs linked to Greenland caused sudden volatility across several markets. The cancellation led to a 7% decline in Bitcoin over the last 7 days, despite a small gain in the past day.
This political event underscores how macro-economic news can quickly ripple into crypto markets, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Timeline of Recent Events
| Date | Event | Impact on Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
| Dec | Base of $86k-$89k support established | Provided a foundation for recent rallies |
| Early Jan | Pullback from $95k high | Trapped BTC below $90k support |
| Mid-Jan | Trump cancels Greenland tariffs | Sparked volatility, 7% weekly decline |
| Late Jan | Leverage ratio hits 0.184 | Indicates higher risk appetite |
| Today | BOJ potential intervention pending | Could lift risk-on sentiment |
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is stuck near $90,000, with the $86,000-$89,000 zone acting as a critical support.
- Leverage on Binance has reached the highest level since last November (0.184), signaling increased risk appetite.
- A potential BOJ intervention could lift risk sentiment and push Bitcoin higher.
- Political news-specifically Trump’s tariff cancellation-has already caused a 7% weekly dip.
- Whale activity remains quiet, with automated trades dominating the current landscape.
Investors and traders should keep an eye on BOJ policy announcements and monitor the $86k-$89k range for any breakout or breakdown.
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