At a Glance
- Ethereum is slipping below key support levels.
- Whale holdings fell by 1.63 million ETH since the start of the year.
- Spot ETFs have seen net outflows of $12.30 billion, the lowest since mid-August.
Ethereum has been facing a sharp decline in on-chain activity and market confidence. Whales are trimming positions, spot ETFs are draining liquidity, and the token is stuck below a critical 200-day moving average. The following sections break down the numbers and the analysts’ views on what could happen next.
Whale Holdings Decline
Santiment on-chain data shows that whale holdings of Ethereum rose slightly at the beginning of the year, reaching 31 million tokens. Since then, the figure has slid to just over 29 million as of January 23, 2026. According to popular analyst Ali Martinez, that translates to a redistribution of 1.63 million ETH from the top tier of holders.
> “We have redistributed 1.63 million Ethereum (ETH) since the start of the year,” said Ali Martinez.
The drop is more than a minor correction; it signals a shift in confidence among the biggest players. As more whales sell, the market’s depth weakens, leaving the price vulnerable to further pullbacks.
Spot ETF Net Flows
Spot Ethereum ETFs have been equally unsettling. By January 6, 2026, the funds had attracted over $400 million. Three days later, they lost a similar amount. A five-day rally in the middle of the month brought in nearly $500 million, but the short-term week that followed saw over $600 million withdrawn. The cumulative net inflows have fallen to $12.30 billion, the lowest level recorded since mid-August.
The data, sourced from SoSoValue, illustrates how quickly investor sentiment can swing. When the market is in doubt, even institutional vehicles struggle to maintain inflows.
ETF Flow Timeline
| Date | Net Inflow | Net Outflow |
|---|---|---|
| January 6, 2026 | $400 million | – |
| January 9, 2026 | – | $400 million |
| Mid-month (5-day rally) | $500 million | – |
| Following week | – | $600 million |
| Cumulative | – | $12.30 billion |
Price Action and Support Levels
Ethereum finished 2025 with a negative trajectory, even after posting an all-time high mid-year. The token began 2026 with a rapid climb, surpassing $3,300 within a week and $3,400 two weeks later. It then mirrored broader market movements and slipped below the crucial $3,000 support, where it currently lingers.
Analyst Ali Martinez notes that the asset must regain the $3,085 level to trigger a meaningful bullish breakout. At present, ETH remains well below that threshold.
> “The asset needs to reclaim the $3,085 level to stage a more pronounced bullish breakout,” said Ali Martinez.
Merlijn The Trader points to the 200-day moving average, currently around $3,300. He warns that each rejection of this level historically triggers a double-digit correction. His latest analysis shows that a further 20% reset is possible if the trend continues.
> “Every rejection at the MA200 has triggered a sharp selloff: Dump 1: -27%, Dump 2: -21%, Dump 3: -14% (so far). If history rhymes, another ~20% reset isn’t off the table,” said Merlijn The Trader.
The convergence of whale selling, ETF outflows, and technical resistance suggests that the token could face deeper retracements before any significant rebound.
Historical ETF Flow Context
The cumulative net inflows of $12.30 billion, the lowest since mid-August, reflect a broader pattern of volatility that has seen ETF inflows swing from large gains to sharp outflows within weeks. This volatility has coincided with sharp price swings in Ethereum, underscoring the sensitivity of the token to institutional sentiment.
Whale Redistribution Dynamics
The 1.63 million ETH redistributed by whales indicates a shift from concentrated ownership to more dispersed holdings. Such redistribution can increase market liquidity but also expose the token to higher volatility, as smaller holders may react more quickly to price changes.
Technical Resistance and Risk
The 200-day moving average at $3,300 is a key resistance level. If Ethereum fails to break above this threshold, the 20% reset warned by Merlijn The Trader could materialize, pushing the price toward the $3,000 support and creating a new risk zone.
Investor Outlook
Given the current confluence of declining whale stakes, ETF outflows, and technical resistance, investors may adopt a cautious stance. Short-term traders might look for pullback opportunities, while long-term holders will monitor whether the token can regain critical support levels before committing more capital.
Key Takeaways
- Whale holdings have fallen by 1.63 million ETH since the start of 2026.
- Spot ETFs have seen net outflows of $12.30 billion, the lowest since mid-August.
- Ethereum is currently below the 200-day moving average at $3,300 and needs to reach $3,085 for a bullish breakout.
- Analysts warn that a 20% reset is possible if the 200-day moving average continues to reject price gains.
Investors should monitor the next few weeks closely, as any further decline could push Ethereum into a new range of support levels. The market’s reaction to these developments will likely shape the token’s trajectory for the rest of the year.
