At a Glance
- Bitcoin holders have recorded their first net losses in a 30-day span since October 2023.
- Cumulative losses reached 69,000 BTC since December 23.
- Realized profit figures dropped from 4.4 million BTC in October 2025 to 2.5 million BTC today.
- Why it matters: The shift signals the beginning of a bear cycle, echoing past downturns and affecting investor sentiment.
Bitcoin’s market dynamics have shifted dramatically in the last month, marking the first time holders have realized net losses in a 30-day period since late 2023. According to a weekly report from CryptoQuant, the cumulative losses have now surpassed 69,000 BTC, a figure that underscores a growing bearish trend across the network.
Realized Losses Surge
CryptoQuant’s data shows that holders began to realize net losses on December 23, a day that marked the start of a downward spiral in profitability. The report notes:
- 69,000 BTC in cumulative losses over the past 30 days.
- This is the first time such a net loss has occurred in a month-long window since October 2023.
The magnitude of these losses reflects a broader decline in realized profits that began in March 2024. As Bitcoin’s price lost momentum and the bull phase tapered, the profit dynamics shifted in a way that mirrors the market’s behavior during the 2021-2022 bull cycle.
Historical Comparisons
| Period | Peak Net Profit | Subsequent Trend | Notable Events |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2021 | Highest in 2021 | Decline began in Feb & Nov 2021 | Lower local tops, net losses at higher prices |
| Jan 2024 | New peak | Series of lower peaks in Dec 2024, Jul, Oct 2025 | Profit margin turned negative |
| Oct 2025 | 4.4 million BTC | Fell to 2.5 million BTC | Early bear-market signal |
The table illustrates how Bitcoin’s realized profit peaks have been followed by similar patterns of decline and net losses in subsequent years. The most recent trend, beginning in January 2024, aligns closely with the early stages of the 2022 bear market, where profits dipped and losses began to accumulate.
Early Bear Market Indicators
Analysts point to several metrics that reinforce the bear-market narrative:
- Net realized profits fell from 4.4 million BTC in October 2025 to 2.5 million BTC today.
- This level is comparable to the March 2022 figures seen at the onset of the last bear market.
- Demand conditions, as reported by News Of Los Angeles, improved slightly last week but did not produce a significant change in price or volume.
- Exchange-traded funds and spot indicators showed contraction over the past month.
These data points collectively suggest that the market has entered an early bear-market phase, similar to the conditions observed in March 2022 when Bitcoin’s price momentum had already stalled.
Market Demand & Demand Conditions
News Of Los Angeles noted that demand for Bitcoin had improved marginally in the last week. However, the uptick was insufficient to offset the broader decline in realized profits. Key observations include:
- No significant shifts in demand from institutional investors.
- Spot trading volume remained flat or declined.
- Exchange-traded fund inflows did not accelerate.
The lack of a robust demand response indicates that investors are not yet confident enough to push prices higher, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Implications for Investors
Investors should be aware of the following:
- Profitability risk: Realized losses are a direct indicator of potential capital erosion.
- Market timing: The pattern mirrors past cycles, suggesting a possible extended bear market.
- Risk management: Diversification and position sizing become increasingly important.
While some traders may view the downturn as a buying opportunity, the prevailing sentiment leans toward caution. The market’s alignment with early-stage bear-market metrics signals that a prolonged correction could be on the horizon.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin holders have recorded net losses for the first time in a 30-day period since October 2023.
- Cumulative losses reached 69,000 BTC, marking a significant shift in profit dynamics.
- Realized profits have fallen from 4.4 million BTC to 2.5 million BTC, echoing early bear-market conditions from March 2022.
- Demand improvements have been minimal and insufficient to reverse the downward trend.
- Investors should reassess risk exposure and consider the potential for a sustained bear cycle.
By monitoring these indicators, market participants can better navigate the evolving landscape and prepare for the challenges ahead.
