Bitcoin is trading near $89,200 at press time, posting a 1% rise over the past 24 hours. A technical pattern, however, has raised concerns among traders.
At a Glance
- The 21-week EMA has crossed below the 50-week EMA, a signal that historically precedes weaker price periods.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $147 million in net outflows on January 27.
- Two major macro events are slated for January 28, including U.S. crude oil inventory data and the Fed’s interest-rate decision.
- Analysts warn that support may lie in the $70,000-$75,000 zone, with potential downside to $58,000-$62,000.
- Why it matters: These factors could push Bitcoin into a broader pullback, affecting both short-term traders and long-term holders.
Bitcoin’s technical landscape has shifted with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) dipping below the 50-week EMA, a crossover that has historically foreshadowed slower growth or deeper corrections. The same pattern appeared in 2018 and 2022, after which Bitcoin fell sharply. Analysts note that the current crossover, occurring in early 2026, may signal a repeat of those earlier cycles.
ETF Outflows
Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of more than $147 million on January 27, according to SoSoValues data. This move may indicate reduced interest or profit-taking among large holders. Historically, such outflows have coincided with periods of selling pressure or lower trading momentum.
Support Levels and Analyst Views
- $70,000-$75,000 is monitored as a potential support zone if the price fails to hold.
- Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested that Bitcoin could fall toward $58,000-$62,000 if the structure breaks lower.
- Chartist Ali Martinez warned that Bitcoin’s reaction to the upcoming FOMC meeting could mirror past drops, noting a 29% fall after the October 29 announcement in 2025.
Macro Events May Add Pressure
Two key events are set for January 28:
- U.S. crude oil inventory data release.
- The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.
Bitcoin historically shows weakness around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Data from 2025 show that after seven of eight FOMC meetings, BTC experienced price drops, with the largest being a 29% fall post-October 29 announcement.
Supply in Loss Trend
Analyst Woominkyu from CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss (%), a metric indicating the proportion of coins that are losing value, is trending upward again. This trend has previously been an early sign of a longer bearish trend, noted in 2014, 2018, and 2022 before markets reached low points.
| Event | Date | Key Metric | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMA crossover | Early 2026 | 21-week EMA below 50-week EMA | Potential start of weaker period |
| ETF outflow | January 27 | $147 million | Reduced holding interest |
| FOMC & Oil data | January 28 | N/A | Possible volatility trigger |
| Supply in Loss | Ongoing | Rising trend | Early bearish signal |
Key Takeaways
- The 21-week EMA crossing below the 50-week EMA is a technical warning that has historically preceded price declines.
- Significant ETF outflows suggest a shift in institutional sentiment.
- Upcoming macro data on January 28 could amplify market volatility.
- Analysts highlight a support zone around $70,000-$75,000 and a potential downside to $58,000-$62,000.
- Rising Supply in Loss percentages may foreshadow a longer bearish trend.
Investors and traders should monitor these signals closely, as the convergence of technical, institutional, and macro factors could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks.
