At a Glance
- XRP price has slipped about 4% in 2026, trading near $1.90.
- 42 new wallets holding at least 1 million XRP were added since the start of the year.
- 21Shares projects a 2026 price range from $1.60 to $2.70.
- Why it matters: Accumulation by large holders signals confidence even as the token remains below key technical levels.
XRP has slipped roughly 4% since the beginning of 2026, hovering near $1.90 on major exchanges. Despite this modest decline, on-chain data shows a surprising uptick in large-balance wallets, hinting that whales are quietly building positions while the market stays in a consolidation phase.
Price Trend and Market Context
XRP’s price has struggled to regain the levels seen earlier in January. CoinGecko data shows the token down about 2% over the past 24 hours and roughly 4% in the last seven days. On a monthly basis, the price is up about 2% but remains 40% lower than a year ago.
Technical Indicators
- The token sits 25% below its 200-day moving average, which is near $2.50.
- The 30-day Sharpe Ratio is close to zero, indicating recent returns have offered little compensation for volatility.
- Momentum readings point to a consolidation pattern rather than a strong directional move.
These metrics paint a cautious picture: price is trading in a tight range between $1.80 and $2.00, with analysts watching whether it can reclaim resistance near $2.00.
On-Chain Accumulation
Santiment reported that XRP has added a net 42 wallets holding at least one million tokens since the beginning of the year- the first increase in “millionaire” wallets since September 2025. The price decline over the same period remains modest at around 4%, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution among larger addresses.
- New million-token wallets: 42
- Period: January 1 – January 29, 2026
- Price movement: ~4% decline
The divergence between price and wallet growth is shaping a cautious but closely watched setup for the token as investors weigh accumulation signals against weak short-term trends.
Analyst Outlook
Market watchers such as XrpArthur have cautioned against optimistic price targets circulating on social media. They argue that projections of $13 to $30 ignore macro conditions, liquidity, Federal Reserve policy, Bitcoin dominance, and actual usage on the XRP Ledger.
21Shares Projections
| Scenario | Price (2026) |
|---|---|
| Bear | $1.60 |
| Base | $2.45 |
| Bull | $2.70 |
21Shares emphasizes regulatory clarity following the August 2025 settlement of the long-running SEC case, which reopened access for U.S. institutions and regulated funds. The firm also points to U.S. spot XRP ETFs as a structural demand source, noting more than $1.3 billion in assets under management within their first month.
However, sustained inflows, growth in tokenization activity, and adoption of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin remain necessary to justify higher valuations.
Regulatory and Institutional Factors
The August 2025 settlement of the SEC case was a pivotal moment for XRP. By clarifying the token’s regulatory status, it opened the door for institutional participation and regulated funds. This has led to the launch of U.S. spot XRP ETFs, which have attracted significant capital.
- ETF assets under management (first month): $1.3 billion
- Impact: Provides a steady demand source and enhances market liquidity.
The combination of regulatory clarity and institutional inflows supports the 21Shares projections, but the token’s short-term performance remains muted.
Key Takeaways
- XRP’s price is down about 4% in 2026, trading near $1.90.
- 42 new million-token wallets have been added, indicating whale accumulation.
- Technical analysis shows the token is 25% below its 200-day moving average and trading in a narrow range.
- 21Shares projects a 2026 price range of $1.60-$2.70, contingent on regulatory clarity and institutional demand.
- The August 2025 SEC settlement and the launch of U.S. spot XRP ETFs are critical factors shaping the token’s outlook.
Investors should monitor both on-chain wallet activity and technical indicators as XRP navigates this consolidation phase in 2026.
