At a Glance
- Binance XRP reserves plunged 45% in 12 months, from $10.16 billion to $5.55 billion.
- On-chain data mirrors early-2022 patterns that preceded a $0.78 to sub-$0.30 crash.
- XRP dropped 11% in seven days after losing the $2 support, trading near $1.90.
- Why it matters: Supply flight plus weak volume signals possible deeper correction ahead.
XRP is quietly vanishing from the world’s largest exchange. Over the past year, Binance wallets have bled almost half of their XRP holdings. The exodus, captured by on-chain analytics, is stoking memories of the brutal 2022 slide and raising fresh questions about near-term price stability.
Supply Shock: 45% of Binance XRP Gone
Binance-held XRP has fallen from $10.16 billion to $5.55 billion since early 2025, analyst Niels noted in a January 20 post. The decline represents billions of tokens moving into private custody rather than sitting on an order book.
> “Something big is happening with $XRP supply. Binance alone has seen its XRP reserves drop almost 45% in one year. Less supply on exchanges usually means one thing-holders are storing long term,” Niels explained.
Exchange balances act as a proxy for immediate selling pressure. When they shrink, coins are typically moved to cold wallets, signalling reduced intent to trade. The 45% drawdown is one of the steepest recorded for a top-tier exchange and any major altcoin in a single year.
Echoes of 2022 Downturn
Glassnode data shows XRP’s current investor profile rhyming with early 2022. Back then, newer buyers entered above $0.78 while longer-term wallets sat underwater. Prices eventually collapsed below $0.30.
> “Psychological pressure on top buyers continues to build over time,” Glassnode warned.
The analytics firm highlights a key metric: realised losses spike whenever XRP retests the $2 zone. Since mid-2025, each approach has coincided with weekly losses of $500 million to $1.2 billion, indicating heavy capitulation by underwater holders.
Price Action: Volume Fades as XRP Slips
XRP printed a multi-month high above $2.40 on January 8. Momentum quickly faded. The token sliced through the psychologically important $2 level on January 19 and touched $1.84 before bouncing to $1.90.
CoinGecko data shows a 11% weekly decline accompanied by thinning trade volume. Analyst Steph Is Crypto flagged the combination as a red flag.
> “$XRP price weakness is happening on declining volume-just like 2021-2022,” the analyst remarked.
Falling volume during a sell-off suggests waning buyer interest, a setup that can extend downturns until fresh catalysts emerge.
ETF Outflows Add to Headwinds
US-based XRP exchange-traded products registered their largest single-week outflows on record this month. Investors pulled significant capital as global tariff threats and macro uncertainty rattled risk assets. The departures compound negative sentiment around the token.
Technical Setup: Compression Before Expansion
Despite the gloomy backdrop, some chartists see potential for a directional burst. Analyst Egrag Crypto released an XRP/BTC comparison showing tightly coiled moving averages and narrowing price bands, a pattern known as compression.
> “This is not noise. This is structure tightening,” Egrag noted, describing a bullish rectangle formation.
Compression phases often resolve with volatile expansion once price exits the range. For now, XRP remains stuck between support and resistance, leaving the next major move undecided.
Key Takeaways
- Binance reserves down 45% signals long-term storage rather than imminent selling.
- On-chain metrics mirror 2022 when XRP fell 60% in months.
- $2 has become a resistance magnet, triggering billions in realised losses.
- Volume is drying up, suggesting traders are stepping aside until direction clarifies.
- ETF outflows reflect broader risk-off mood across crypto.
The supply migration off exchanges is historically bullish, but only if demand eventually returns. Until volume and macro sentiment improve, XRP remains vulnerable to another leg lower, potentially retesting zones not seen since the early 2024 recovery.
