Bitcoin is testing critical support after a sharp rejection from the $98,000 resistance cluster, leaving traders watching the $88,000 level for a potential deeper slide.
At a Glance
- Bitcoin has fallen from $98,000 resistance and is hovering above $90,000
- Loss of $88,000 on a daily close would expose the $80,000 demand zone
- Short-term holders have been realizing losses for weeks, a setup that often precedes a repositioning
- Why it matters: A break below $88,000 could confirm a medium-term top and shift momentum firmly to bears
The largest cryptocurrency has rolled over from a confluence of technical hurdles near $98,000, where the 100-day moving average and the upper boundary of a rising channel intersect. Price is now rotating lower while holding above December’s higher-low zone, framing the current move as a test of support within an evolving corrective structure rather than an outright trend reversal.
Daily Chart Breakdown
On the daily chart, the 200-day moving average remains overhead and downward-sloping around $105,000, reinforcing that the broader medium-term trend has not yet realigned to the upside. The Daily RSI has retreated from overbought territory and dropped below the 50 % threshold, adding to the bearish short-term signal.
The first meaningful support sits in the $90,000 region, where the lower channel boundary and the recent bounce base overlap. A daily close beneath this area would open the door toward the deeper demand block around $80,000, marking the origin of the latest leg higher and a prior major accumulation zone.
As long as Bitcoin holds above $88,000 and reclaims the mid-$90,000s with conviction, the daily structure can still form a constructive higher-low configuration. Sustained trade below $88,000 would significantly weaken that constructive bias.
4-Hour Intraday View
The 4-hour chart shows price poised to test the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Bitcoin has declined from the recent local high near $96,000 back into the $90,000-$91,000 area, where short-term support formed during earlier consolidation.
The 4-hour RSI has moved into oversold territory, signaling stretched downside momentum after several consecutive red candles. If the lower boundary around $89,000-$90,000 holds, a technical rebound toward $93,000-$95,000 would be consistent with a standard retest of the broken intraday range and could help determine whether sellers retain control.
A clean break below $89,000 would confirm a loss of the short-term up-channel and likely invite a deeper test of the high-timeframe demand zone around $80,000. At the moment, the intraday structure reflects corrective pressure within a broader consolidation band rather than a fully developed bearish trend.
On-Chain Signals
Short-term holder behavior over recent months has been characterized by persistent loss realization. The 30-day EMA of the short-term holder SOPR has spent an extended period below its neutral threshold around 1, indicating that coins held for a relatively short duration have been spent on average at a loss.
This pattern suggests that late entrants and weaker hands have been continuously exiting during the consolidation phase, absorbing downside and sideways volatility instead of aggressively defending higher prices. Historically, prolonged periods in which short-term holders realize losses while price holds above key higher-timeframe support are often associated with a “reset” of market positioning: speculative excess is reduced, ownership shifts toward stronger hands, and sensitivity to marginal new demand increases.
This dynamic does not guarantee immediate continuation. If macro demand were to weaken further, the overhang of realized losses could still weigh on price. However, the combination of structural support holding on the chart and evidence of capitulation among shorter-term participants is consistent with a late-stage corrective environment that can, once selling pressure is exhausted, provide the foundation for a subsequent impulsive advance.
Key Levels to Watch
| Support Zone | Significance | Break Below Implies |
|---|---|---|
| $90,000 | Lower channel boundary & recent bounce base | Opens $80,000 retest |
| $88,000 | Higher-timeframe higher-low | Confirms medium-term top |
| $80,000 | Major accumulation zone & latest leg origin | Potential deeper correction |
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s rejection from $98,000 resistance has pushed price toward pivotal support
- The $88,000 level is the line in the sand; a daily close below it would shift the medium-term outlook bearish
- Short-term holder capitulation is ongoing, a condition that has historically preceded stronger-handed accumulation
- Traders should watch the $89,000-$90,000 band on the 4-hour chart for either a relief bounce or a channel breakdown toward $80,000
