At a Glance
- Bitcoin plunged from $95,000 to $93,000 in hours, testing its 50-week moving average
- The 50-week MA has acted as critical support throughout the current cycle
- Macro news, including new US trade tariffs, triggered the sell-off
- Why it matters: A break below this technical level could signal further downside risk
Bitcoin is at a critical technical juncture after shedding $3,000 in a matter of hours. The leading cryptocurrency now trades near $93,000, down 2% in 24 hours but still up 3% over the past week.
Technical Level Under Pressure
The sharp decline pushed Bitcoin below its 50-week moving average, a level that has served as a reliable support floor throughout the current market cycle. This key technical indicator has previously marked multiple recovery points over the last year.
Analyst Merlijn The Trader characterized the current setup as a “make-or-break moment” in a recent analysis. He outlined two potential scenarios:
- Bull case: Reclaim and hold the 50-week MA, leading to continuation higher
- Bear case: Rejection at the 50-week MA, resulting in more downside
The rejection near the $95,000 zone demonstrates market caution, with traders closely watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim the moving average to reset momentum.
Short-Term Support Remains Intact
Despite the recent weakness, Bitcoin continues trading above its 21-day moving average. This shorter-term indicator has supported the recent pattern of higher lows, suggesting momentum hasn’t completely broken down.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe addressed rising concerns around macroeconomic developments, writing on X: “A lot of people are afraid… I don’t think you should.”
Key support is building near the $90,000 level, which could determine the next major move. On the upside, resistance remains firmly in place between $100,000 and $105,700. Without a strong volume breakout above this range, upside moves may face continued headwinds.
Global Events Drive Crypto Reaction
The latest price drop coincided with news of new US trade tariffs, which markets began processing during the futures session. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted the correlation: “BTC moved straight down from the futures open when TradFi got a chance to react.”
He also identified the 4-hour 200EMA as providing short-term support during the decline. This price action illustrates how closely cryptocurrency markets now track major global economic developments.
With uncertainty elevated, traders appear to be waiting for guidance from traditional markets, particularly how US equities respond in coming sessions.
Underlying Market Signals Show Resilience
Beneath the surface-level volatility, some analysts point to encouraging signs. Long-term holders seem less inclined to sell at current levels.
“They’re clearly not selling like this is the top,” observed on-chain analyst Crypto Tice.
According to CryptoQuant’s COINDREAM metric, the recent price bounce was driven by spot market buying rather than leverage. The data shows demand originated from spot traders before extending into futures markets, suggesting genuine accumulation rather than a leverage-fueled rally.
This spot-led demand pattern typically indicates more sustainable price action compared to rallies built primarily on derivatives speculation.
Market Context and Technical Outlook
Bitcoin’s current positioning below the 50-week moving average represents a significant technical development. Throughout the current cycle, this indicator has marked crucial inflection points, making the current test particularly noteworthy for technical analysts.
The convergence of macroeconomic uncertainty with key technical levels has created a heightened sense of importance around current price action. How Bitcoin responds to this technical test could set the tone for the next major directional move.
Traders and analysts will be closely watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim the 50-week moving average in coming sessions, or if rejection at this level opens the door for deeper corrections toward the $90,000 support zone.
The interplay between technical levels, macroeconomic developments, and on-chain metrics creates a complex backdrop for Bitcoin’s next major move, with the cryptocurrency at a potentially pivotal technical crossroads.
