At a Glance
- Bitcoin traded below the estimated $101,000 miner breakeven on January 12
- On-chain capital flows appear to have bottomed and are now strengthening
- Monthly RSI has slipped below 60, placing momentum in a neutral-to-slightly bearish zone
- Why it matters: Traders are split on whether the drop signals a cycle low or further downside
Bitcoin’s slide under the miner breakeven level has reignited a classic crypto debate: is this the cycle bottom or just another leg down?
Price Action vs. Miner Economics
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below the estimated $101,000 miner breakeven level on January 12. This threshold has historically aligned with longer-term cycle lows, according to data cited by News Of Losangeles.
Despite the sub-breakeven print, the asset managed a 1% gain in the 24 hours following the breach. Weekly performance remains negative by roughly the same margin, while the monthly chart shows a modest uptick. From its October 2025 peak near $126,000, Bitcoin is still down about 27%.
On-Chain Metrics Flash Mixed Signals
Several analysts on X argue that the pullback masks strengthening fundamentals. Wise Crypto noted that on-chain capital flows appear to have bottomed and are now improving, even as price languishes below miner cost.
Additional metrics tracked by CryptosRus tell a similar story:
- Puell Multiple is elevated but far from prior cycle-top extremes
- MVRV ratio suggests a mid-cycle pause rather than overheated conditions
- Spot fund flows are quietly returning
Macro Headlines Add Noise
Macro developments injected fresh volatility. The New York Times reported that federal prosecutors opened an inquiry involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, tied to a dispute over interest-rate policy and a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation.
VanEck’s Matthew Sigel observed that Bitcoin gained about 1% on the news, with no change to its fundamental issuance schedule. The mild reaction hints that political uncertainty may be reframed as potential dollar weakness, a historically bullish narrative for the asset.
Technical Levels Under Scrutiny
Chart-based sentiment is more cautious. EGRAG CRYPTO highlighted that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI has slipped below the key 60 level, shifting momentum into neutral-to-slightly bearish territory, though the indicator has begun to curl higher.
Other traders, including Crypto Chase, flagged hesitation around the $92,000-$93,000 zone as evidence that buyers lack urgency. Losing key weekly moving averages above $101,000 has flipped the structure to the downside, according to CryptoQuant contributor Sunny Mom, with heavy resistance now forming near $96,000.
Bull Case: Miner Pain as Buyer Opportunity
Proponents of an imminent rebound cite three converging factors:
- Proximity to miner cost bases, a level that has coincided with prior cycle lows
- Renewed spot inflows, however muted
- Potential dollar weakness should political pressure on the Fed intensify
The argument rests on the idea that when miners struggle to remain profitable, selling pressure eases and supply tightens-historically a launchpad for price recoveries.
Bear Case: Technical Fragility
Skeptics counter that technical damage below $101,000 could open the door to deeper losses. Key concerns include:
- Monthly RSI below 60 signaling waning momentum
- Failure to reclaim weekly moving averages
- Heavy resistance clustered around $96,000
Until Bitcoin re-establishes a footing above these levels, downside risk remains the default path, cautious traders argue.
Market Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Change (24h) |
|---|---|---|
| BTC Price | ~$99,800 | +1% |
| Weekly Change | – | -1% |
| Monthly Change | – | +2% |
| Down from ATH | – | -27% |
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin trading below the $101,000 miner breakeven revives the cycle-low debate
- On-chain data shows capital flows recovering, but technical charts remain fragile
- Macro uncertainty around Fed leadership adds an unpredictable catalyst
- Traders are closely watching the $92,000-$93,000 support and $96,000 resistance for the next directional clue
For now, BTC sits at a crossroads: improving underlying health versus unsettled price action. Which narrative wins may decide whether the current level becomes yet another historic bottom or merely a brief pause in a deeper correction.
