> At a Glance
> – Bitcoin closed five straight daily gains, peaking near $94,000 on Jan 6
> – Mid-term holder cost basis sits at $100K, a historic bull-bear pivot
> – A decisive move above would flip trend bullish; rejection keeps bears in control
> – Why it matters: The next few sessions could set the tone for the months ahead
Bitcoin’s latest rally has stalled just below a psychologically charged level watched by on-chain analysts: $100,000. How price reacts here may dictate whether the climb from October’s $126,000 all-time high resumes or fades.
Why $100,000 Is the New Battle Line
Data tracked by Crypto Dan shows the average purchase price for coins that last moved six-to-twelve months ago hovers around $100,000. Historically, BTC trading below that cost basis keeps macro momentum bearish, while reclaiming it has preceded trend reversals.
> “When price sits under this level, the broader trend leans bearish, and the risk of further downside remains elevated,” Crypto Dan wrote.
A sustained break above, therefore, would signal a potential shift from months of choppy decline into a fresh bullish phase.
Mixed Signals Beneath the Surface
While spot price has advanced 7.6% over the past week, other indicators paint a murkier picture:
- Darkfost notes Binance stablecoin reserves jumped by roughly $1 billion, hinting at sidelined buying power
- Yet BorisD highlights Bitcoin’s declining Sharpe ratio, implying the move lacks strong external demand and may be fueled by internal short covering
Technical analyst Doctor Profit sees near-term resistance cleared, opening room toward $97,000-$107,000, but concedes the market is still seeking firm direction.
| Metric | Recent Reading | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| 6-12M Holder Cost Basis | $100,000 | Key bull-bear pivot |
| Weekly Gain | +7.6% | Longest win streak since Oct 2025 |
| Binance Stablecoins | +$1B | Potential dry powder for buys |
| Sharpe Ratio | Falling | Rally quality under scrutiny |
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s next major directional cue hinges on a weekly close above or below $100,000
- The level marks the average acquisition price for coins dormant six-to-twelve months
- Failure to surpass it would keep the post-$126K downtrend structurally intact
- Fresh stablecoin inflows provide upside fuel, but momentum indicators urge caution
Traders will be watching this psychological magnet closely as January unfolds.
