Bitcoin is grinding higher into a heavy resistance pocket while spot supply on exchanges keeps shrinking. Structurally, that’s a bullish backdrop, but technically, the price is pressing right into an area where profit-taking is expected.
Either the price breaks and holds above this ceiling, or a corrective pullback into the mid-range would occur.
At a Glance
- Bitcoin has re-entered the $95K resistance band that rejected previous rallies
- Exchange reserves keep dropping, signaling tight supply
- Daily RSI shows strong momentum but within a larger corrective structure
- Why it matters: A break above $95K could trigger a move toward $106K and reignite the bull run
Daily Chart: Counter-Trend Rally or New Uptrend?
On the daily chart, BTC has pushed back into the $95K resistance band, which lines up with the 100-day moving average. This zone rejected the asset on previous bounces and still acts as a key supply area within the broader downtrend from the highs.
Daily RSI is elevated but not at panic extremes anymore. This signals strong short-term momentum yet keeps the move inside a larger corrective structure. As long as BTC trades below the 100-day moving average and the $95K resistance block, the action is best treated as a counter-trend rally, not a confirmed new uptrend.
If the level breaks to the upside, a rally toward the $106K zone and the 200-day moving average would be expected. That move could spark the beginning of a new, more prolonged bull run.
4-Hour Chart: Momentum Slows at the Top
On the 4-hour chart, the price broke out from the ascending structure and is now consolidating right at the top of the pattern and at the higher-timeframe resistance.
Momentum is clearly slowing:
- Candles are getting smaller
- RSI has started to roll over from overbought after a bearish divergence
- Local distribution near the highs is hinted
If buyers fail to defend the breakout area around $93K-$94K, a pullback toward the lower trendline of the pattern and the $90K region would be probable.
Conversely, if BTC can hold above $93K-$94K and build a base there, another push toward the $98K-$100K psychological level becomes realistic. Yet buyers need quick follow-through, or the breakout risks turning into a fakeout.
On-Chain: Fewer Coins on Exchanges
Exchange reserve data continues to trend lower while the price trades near the top of the local range. That means fewer BTC are sitting on exchanges and more are in cold storage or strong hands. This is typically a constructive, supply-tight backdrop.
This does not prevent short-term corrections when the price is pressing into technical resistance. It does argue that deeper dips into the $80K-$90K range are more likely to be bought than to trigger a full distribution top.
Unless a sharp spike of BTC flowing back to exchanges occurs, the on-chain picture still leans medium-term bullish even if the price experiences some near-term downside to reset momentum.
Key Takeaways
- $95K remains the line in the sand. A daily close above it targets $106K
- Loss of $93K-$94K opens the door to $90K and possibly $80K-$90K
- Shrinking exchange supply supports the bull case on any pullback
- RSI rollover on the 4-hour warns of cooling momentum
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