Bitcoin hovers at a pivotal technical crossroads after failing to crack $126,000, with a fresh weekly Supertrend sell signal now flashing on trader screens.
At a Glance
- Bitcoin weekly Supertrend just flipped bearish after a brief test of the $126K resistance
- Historical 77-84 % corrections followed similar sell signals in prior cycles
- Bulls need to defend $95,500; a break below $87,500 voids the double-bottom setup
- Over $237 million liquidated in 24 hours as sentiment flips back to “greed”
Why it matters: The next few days could decide whether BTC revisits $50,000 or marches toward $110,000.
Weekly Supertrend Flips Red
A chart circulated by Ali Martinez shows the Supertrend indicator on Bitcoin’s weekly timeframe has printed a new sell signal. The last occurrence preceded a sharp downtrend that ended only after a subsequent buy signal appeared near the cycle low.
$BTC: This time is different… Super cycle incoming! pic.twitter.com/buYFAMzZpA
- Ali Charts (@alicharts) January 16, 2026
Traders view the development as a warning that momentum may be shifting lower after months of upside.
Historical Pullbacks Loom Large
Crypto Patel reminded followers that Bitcoin has repeatedly suffered deep drawdowns after tagging major peaks:
| Cycle Top | Correction | Decline |
|---|---|---|
| $19,666 | 84 % | ~$3,200 |
| $69,000 | 77 % | ~$15,500 |
Patel’s latest chart projects a potential 60 % slide if $125,000 continues to act as hard resistance, with the next major support zone-dubbed a bullish order block-sitting near $50,000.
“What if Bitcoin crashes to $50K… just because it can’t break $125K?” he asked.
Double-Bottom Hope Hinges on $95.5K
Not all signals lean bearish. Merlijn The Trader highlights a possible double-bottom formation provided the price sustains above $95,500. A daily close back above $102,000 would confirm the pattern and open the door to an $110,000 measured-move target.
Merlijn cautioned that slipping beneath $87,500 would invalidate the constructive setup and likely accelerate selling toward the $50,000 support cluster.
Liquidations Spike as Sentiment Warms
Bitcoin’s 24-hour price action shows a mild decline, yet weekly candles remain green. Derivatives data from CoinGlass reveals:
- $237 million in total liquidations
- 113,000+ accounts affected
- Longs absorbed the brunt of the pain as leverage reset
The BTC Fear and Greed Index has crept back into “greed” territory for the first time in three months, a shift that historically precedes short-term pullbacks when positioning becomes lopsided.
Market Awaits Washington’s Next Move
A delayed vote on the U.S. Senate’s proposed crypto market-structure bill added an extra layer of uncertainty. Traders say regulatory headlines could amplify volatility around the key technical levels now in play.
Key Takeaways
- The weekly Supertrend sell signal is live; previous signals marked major cycle tops
- Bulls must defend $95,500 to keep double-bottom scenario intact
- Failure to reclaim $102,000 increases odds of a 60 % retracement toward $50,000
- Leverage flush already underway with $237 million liquidated, but sentiment remains buoyant
With both bullish and bearish setups locked in a tight range, Bitcoin’s next 5 % move may decide the direction of the next 50 %.
