Bitcoin futures positioning has shifted into a steady bullish zone for the first time since October, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr.
At a Glance
- Bitcoin Positioning Index hit 3.5, breaking above the key 3 level for the first time since October
- Daily index reading reached 24 amid aggressive long positioning and a 1.89% rise in open interest
- Bitcoin’s price climbed nearly 4% to $95,358 as open interest rose to $12.18 billion
- Why it matters: The regime shift signals sustained bullish accumulation rather than a one-day spike
The Bitcoin Positioning Index, which tracks open interest dynamics, funding rates, and long/short ratios across major exchanges, shows bullish positions have been building methodically. The SMA-30d breakout above 3 after three months in the neutral 0 ± 2 range marks what Adler calls a “local regime shift” in market positioning.
Futures Market Flashes Bullish Signals
Daily data for the index reached 24, driven by:
- A 1.89% increase in open interest
- Positive taker delta
- Funding rate at 0.0045
The last time the SMA-30d reached comparable levels was October 6, 2025, during a rally that pushed Bitcoin to $125,000. Adler notes that continuation of the current bullish trend depends on the SMA remaining above 2 for at least a week.
Bitcoin’s recent price movement aligns with the futures data. The cryptocurrency rose nearly 4% to $95,358 while open interest expanded to $12.18 billion.
Sentiment Index Shows Cooling, Not Reversal
The Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index peaked at 93% before retreating to 70%. Despite the pullback, the index remains:
- Above the neutral 50% threshold
- Above its SMA-30d level of 62.9%
Adler interprets the 23-percentage-point decline as a “release of market overheating rather than a reversal.” This contrasts sharply with December’s correction to $85,000, when sentiment plummeted to extreme lows of 10-15%. Adler characterized that drop as a “structural breakdown” rather than a temporary adjustment.
The analyst adds that if market sentiment turns negative and Bitcoin’s price falls below $92,000, it would signal that bullish momentum in the futures market is beginning to fade.
External Factors Support Continued Upside
QCP Capital shares the optimistic outlook, expecting further gains in a continued risk-on environment. The firm points to several supporting factors:
- Stable U.S. inflation
- Strong equity markets
- Robust precious metal performance
These elements contribute to broader risk appetite that could extend into digital assets. While geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran, along with a pending U.S. Supreme Court decision on tariffs, pose potential risks, QCP Capital believes these developments are largely priced in. The firm suggests any escalation could create buy-the-dip opportunities for Bitcoin.
Market Structure Indicates Sustainable Momentum
The current bullish positioning differs from previous spikes because it reflects systematic accumulation rather than concentrated buying. The Bitcoin Positioning Index considers multiple data points across major cryptocurrency exchanges, providing a comprehensive view of market sentiment.
Key technical levels to watch include:
- $92,000: Critical support level that, if broken, could signal fading bullish momentum
- SMA-30d level of 2: Must stay above this level for at least a week to confirm trend continuation
- Neutral range of 0 ± 2: The zone Bitcoin recently escaped after three months
The combination of rising open interest, positive funding rates, and favorable long/short ratios creates a foundation for potential price appreciation. However, traders should monitor whether the SMA-30d can maintain its position above the key 2 level that separates bullish from neutral territory.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin futures markets have entered their most bullish phase in three months, with positioning data suggesting sustained rather than speculative buying. The confluence of technical indicators, from the Positioning Index breaking above 3 to sentiment remaining above key thresholds, indicates a potential shift in market dynamics that could support further price appreciation if key levels hold.
