> At a Glance
> – Bitcoin hovers near $91,700 as exchange supply drops to 13.7%, the lowest since 2018
> – Low inflows and steady outflows signal holders are moving coins to cold storage
> – Key price levels to watch: $93.8K and $96.5K, with $91.2K as downside support
> – Why it matters: Tight supply and weak selling pressure could fuel the next leg up if momentum builds
Bitcoin is trading near $91,700, down 2% in 24 hours but up 4% over the past week. With only 13.7% of BTC now sitting on exchanges-the lowest share since 2018-traders are focused on whether tight supply can push price through key resistance.
Exchange Supply Shrinks Despite Price Volatility
Binance now holds just 3.2% of total Bitcoin supply, according to on-chain data. The decline is part of a multi-year trend, not a short-term blip, and the lack of large inflows suggests most holders aren’t preparing to sell.
Netflow charts show consistent outflows, with notable withdrawals on December 22 and January 5. These moves indicate buyers are transferring coins to long-term storage rather than leaving them on platforms ready to trade.
- Exchange inflows stayed muted even as Bitcoin tested $95,000 last week
- Outflows contrast with past cycles where spikes in exchange deposits preceded corrections
- Cold-storage migration implies bullish sentiment among long-term holders
Data Debate Clouds Long-Term Holder Metrics
Analyst CW flagged a reporting quirk tied to Coinbase’s wallet migration in November. The shift temporarily reduced measured long-term holder supply, but over 500K BTC should still be counted in that bucket, CW argues. If true, the amount of Bitcoin locked away off exchanges is even larger than headline numbers suggest.
Traders Eye Critical Price Levels
After slicing below $91,500 early in the week, Bitcoin bounced back toward $93,000. Market watchers highlight two pivotal zones:
| Level | Significance |
|---|---|
| $93.8K | Immediate resistance on intraday moves |
| $96.5K | Next major hurdle before $100K |
| $91.2K | Support that must hold to avoid deeper pullback |
Lennaert Snyder noted the asset is “trying to choose a direction,” while Michaël van de Poppe emphasized that staying above the 21-day moving average keeps the door open for further upside.
Key Takeaways
- Exchange balances at 2018 lows signal limited selling pressure
- Persistent outflows favor continued supply tightening
- A break above $96.5K could open the path to the psychologically key $100K level
- Failure to hold $91.2K may invite a sharper retreat
With inflows subdued and long-term holders seemingly unfazed by recent volatility, Bitcoin’s next major move may hinge on whether demand can absorb what little supply remains on trading venues.
