> At a Glance
> – Bitcoin hit $93,600 Tuesday, up 7% in a week
> – A weekly close above $93,500 would confirm a breakout from a months-old downtrend
> – Fed balance-sheet MACD golden cross mirrors 2019 signal that preceded a major BTC rally
> – Why it matters: The next few days could decide whether crypto’s early-2026 climb has legs or fizzles
Bitcoin is knocking on the door of a level that could flip the mid-term outlook bullish-or leave the door open for another slide.
The Level to Watch
After bouncing off $86,200 support, BTC punched toward the top of its weekly range near $93,500. Analyst Rekt Capital says a weekly candle close above that mark would complete a breakout from the downtrend that’s capped prices since October 2025.
> “$93,500 needs to hold as support for mid-term bullish bias.”
The weekend rally held into Monday, a departure from recent quick reversals, and volume stayed heavy at $51.5 billion in 24 hours.
Fed Liquidity Signal
A monthly MACD golden cross has appeared on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s balance sheet-last seen in 2019 before Bitcoin’s next leg higher. Trader Lark Davis flagged the shift:
> “Not official QE yet… but it sure looks like QE and smells like QE.”
If the balance sheet keeps expanding, risk assets could feel the tail-wind in early 2026.
Near-Term Hurdles
- $90,000-$91,000 must hold to keep the 21-day moving-average support intact, notes Michaël van de Poppe
- $94,500 is the next key resistance, warns Sykodelic, who also sees Coinbase spot-premium and On-Balance-Volume breakout signals
- Failure to clear $94.5K could send price back toward $89K
Glassnode data labels the current move a “fragile consolidation,” reminding traders that this leg up might still be a final bounce before a deeper correction.
Key Takeaways
- Weekly close above $93.5K is the technical catalyst to watch
- Fed liquidity picture is quietly improving, echoing 2019 playbook
- Bulls need to defend $90K-$91K on any pullback to keep $100K in play
With the range top under assault and macro currents shifting, Bitcoin’s next weekly candle could set the tone for months to come.
