Bitcoin trades near $96,000 as analysts watch $105,000 and $83,000 levels for breakout or breakdown; whales dominate while retail demand fades.
At a Glance
- Bitcoin is compressing inside a rising channel and approaching a decisive moment
- A weekly close above $105,000 could open a path toward $180,000-$210,000
- A drop below $83,000 would break the channel and suggest cycle weakness
- Why it matters: The next weekly close may set the direction for months
Bitcoin is moving inside an ascending price channel and is now pressing against a key inflection zone. Two levels are drawing the market’s full attention: a sustained move above $105,000 would keep the uptrend intact, while a fall through $83,000 would threaten the structure that has guided prices higher.
Key Levels on Watch
EGRAG CRYPTO posted an update showing Bitcoin compressing near the lower boundary of its rising trend. The channel itself has not broken, but pressure is building.
> “A weekly close above $105K confirms strength,” EGRAG noted.
If bulls can defend that level, the next leg could reach $180,000-$210,000. Conversely, “a weekly close below $83K would break the channel,” they warned, flagging potential weakness in the current cycle.
For now, the structure remains valid. Bitcoin tagged $98,000 on Thursday before slipping on headlines of delayed legislative talks. The pullback held above $96,000, leaving the pair up more than 6% on the week.
Price Action and Broader Context
The largest cryptocurrency is outperforming most assets even as macro traders grow cautious. The total crypto market capitalization sits at $3.34 trillion, with Bitcoin commanding 57% of that pie.
Rekt Capital compared today’s price behavior to late November 2024.
> “Bitcoin could weekly close around $97K but retest $93,500 next week,” they shared.
They added that BTC is hovering near its Bull Market EMAs yet has not confirmed them as support.
> Even though the Bull Market EMAs are teasing to act as resistance, history suggests Bitcoin shouldn’t struggle to break beyond them. However, history also suggests Bitcoin will struggle to keep them as support, and the crossover may occur once the EMAs have been turned into new support.
Merlijn The Trader pointed out that Bitcoin has reclaimed its 50-day moving average. Holding this line could underpin another push higher, with the 100-day average marking the next resistance.
Whales Hold the Reins
CW observed that large wallets dominate volume flows. The recent fade in smaller-buyer demand could amplify downside moves if sentiment shifts.
> “Retail investors have very little influence,” they stated.
Data from CryptosRus shows long-term holders are selling less aggressively.
> “OG selling at local tops has been rolling over,” they wrote. Coins dormant for five or more years are not moving at the pace seen earlier in the cycle.
The declining supply from veteran wallets may offer a buffer if demand remains steady. With fewer old coins hitting exchanges, Bitcoin could find support more readily during pullbacks.
Market Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin Price | $96,000 |
| Weekly Gain | +6% |
| Market Cap Share | 57% |
| Total Crypto Cap | $3.34 trillion |
| Key Resistance | $105,000 |
| Key Support | $83,000 |
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is consolidating inside a rising channel and nearing a breakout decision
- A weekly close above $105,000 would target $180,000-$210,000
- A fall beneath $83,000 would break structure and suggest deeper weakness
- Whales control volume, while retail participation has thinned
- Long-term holder selling pressure is easing, potentially tightening supply
The next weekly candle may decide whether the bull trend accelerates or shifts into a new phase.
