Bitcoin has surged 20% since November 21, 2025, yet underlying demand signals suggest the bear market remains intact.
At a Glance
- Bitcoin rallied 20% but demand conditions remain weak
- Spot demand contracted by 67,000 BTC over the last 30 days
- Exchange inflows spike to 39,000 BTC seven-day average
- Why it matters: The price bounce may be a temporary bear market rally rather than a trend reversal
Bitcoin’s recent price recovery has brought the cryptocurrency near its 365-day moving average of $101,000, a level that has historically acted as a regime boundary during previous bear cycles. The 20% surge follows a 19% decline that confirmed the start of a bear market when BTC fell below this key technical level.
Weak Demand Despite Price Recovery
According to CryptoQuant analysts, BTC demand conditions have shown improvement recently but remain fundamentally weak. The market has not escaped the bearish phase despite the latest rally.
Spot demand indicators reveal concerning trends:
- Bitcoin spot demand contracted by 67,000 BTC over the last 30 days
- Demand has been in negative territory since November 28, 2025
- U.S. spot indicators briefly turned positive but remain fragile
The Coinbase Price Premium, a key metric for U.S. spot demand, briefly increased from deep negative territory for only the second time since mid-December 2025. This marginal improvement fails to indicate a sustained recovery in American buying interest.
ETF Activity Remains Subdued
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown minimal signs of renewed accumulation. These products merely stopped net selling during the rally after offloading as much as 54,000 BTC over a 30-day period in November 2025.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have purchased only 3,800 BTC so far this year, compared to 3,600 at the same time last year. Both figures fall well below thresholds typically associated with bull-market recoveries.
The absence of extraordinary ETF activity reinforces the assessment that institutional demand has not returned in force. This tepid response from traditionally influential market participants suggests the rally lacks fundamental support.
Exchange Flows Signal Potential Selling Pressure
Bitcoin transfers to exchanges have increased significantly following the recent price surge. Exchange flows have risen to a seven-day average of 39,000 BTC, a level historically associated with escalating selling activity.
This pattern mirrors previous bear market dynamics where temporary price recoveries were followed by renewed selling pressure. The 2022 bear cycle showed similar behavior, with BTC experiencing multiple rejections near the 365-day moving average before resuming downward movement.
Analysts note that the current technical setup closely resembles these historical precedents. The combination of weak spot demand, subdued ETF activity, and rising exchange inflows creates conditions conducive to further price weakness.
Technical Analysis Points to Bear Market Continuation
The 365-day moving average has served as a critical technical level throughout Bitcoin’s trading history. Price action consistently shows this level acting as resistance during bear phases, with repeated rejections before renewed declines.
BTC’s current proximity to the $101,000 level places it at a decision point. Previous bear cycles have shown that breaks above this moving average require sustained demand growth, conditions notably absent from the current market structure.
The analysis from CryptoQuant emphasizes that despite the 20% rally, fundamental demand metrics have not improved sufficiently to support a trend reversal. Spot market contraction and weak institutional participation suggest the bear market remains intact.
Market Structure Suggests Caution
Multiple data points converge to paint a picture of continued bear market conditions. The combination of contracting spot demand, minimal ETF accumulation, and rising exchange balances creates a negative feedback loop.
Historical analysis shows that bear market rallies often achieve 15-25% gains before reversing. The current 20% increase falls within this typical range, suggesting limited upside potential without fundamental demand improvement.
The persistent weakness in U.S. demand indicators particularly concerns market observers. American institutional and retail participation historically drives significant Bitcoin price movements, yet current activity levels remain depressed.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s 20% rally has brought the cryptocurrency near critical technical resistance at the 365-day moving average, but underlying demand fundamentals remain weak. Spot market contraction of 67,000 BTC over 30 days, combined with subdued ETF activity and rising exchange inflows, suggests the bear market has not concluded. The technical setup closely mirrors previous bear cycles where similar rallies were followed by renewed selling pressure.
