Bitcoin (BTC) fell past the $90,000 mark after a failed attempt to break through a key resistance zone. Technical patterns now point toward a deeper decline toward $70,000, while bearish pressure builds from recent liquidations and market uncertainty.
At a Glance
- BTC dropped below $90,000 after rejecting $94,000-$98,000 resistance.
- Analysts see a potential 22% decline to $70,000.
- A 50-day simple moving average near $90,000 is acting as a tough resistance.
- Why it matters: Investors are watching key support levels that could dictate BTC’s next move and influence risk-asset sentiment.
Technical Breakdown
Bitcoin’s price action has been shaped by a series of technical signals that suggest a bearish continuation.
Failed Head and Shoulders and Bear Flag
- The asset was rejected at the $94,000-$98,000 range, which served as neckline resistance in a larger Head and Shoulders pattern.
- After the rejection, BTC moved sharply lower, confirming a bearish trend.
- A breakdown of a concurrent bear flag further reinforced the downside move.
Moving Averages and Liquidity
| Indicator | Value | Effect on Price |
|---|---|---|
| 50-day SMA | $90,000 | Acts as resistance; liquidity over $50M sits above it |
| 21-day SMA | $91,500 | Adds to resistance if price rises again |
| Upcoming crossover | Expected next month | If 21-day crosses below 50-day, bearish pressure may intensify |
The 50-day SMA is defended by substantial liquidity, making it harder for bulls to regain control.
Support Levels and Potential Decline
Analysts are monitoring three key support levels:
- $80,000 – immediate floor after the recent drop.
- $75,000 – secondary support.
- $70,000 – long-term target.
According to analyst Crypto Patel, these levels align with the expected move from the breakdown, indicating a possible 22% decline.
> “These levels match the expected move from the breakdown,” said Crypto Patel.
The trend remains bearish until BTC can regain and hold above $92,000.
Market Context
Over the past seven days, BTC has fallen more than 6%. A small recovery of under 1% in the last 24 hours left the asset near its lowest point in a month.
Influencing Factors
- US Federal Reserve decisions: market is awaiting policy announcements.
- Earnings reports from major tech companies: potential to sway risk appetite.
- Global market uncertainty: sharp currency moves and US bond volatility added to the backdrop.
Bitcoin’s decline also followed a series of large liquidations in the derivatives market, adding selling pressure during a week of heightened uncertainty.
Additional Analyst Perspectives
- Material Indicators (CoinMarketCap contributor) highlighted the 50-day SMA and liquidity dynamics.
- BitBull noted BTC’s proximity to the Active Investor Mean at $87,500. If this level is lost, the asset may fall toward $80,700, a historically deeper support.
- Aman observed that BTC is on the edge of a fourth consecutive red month, a pattern last seen in 2018.
> “$BTC is on the edge of a 4th consecutive red month,” said Aman.
Short-term holders have a cost basis above $96,000, meaning many are now in a loss, creating additional selling pressure above the current price. Long-term holders, by contrast, remain profitable, with an average cost closer to $56,000.
Key Takeaways
- BTC’s failure to break $94,000-$98,000 resistance has triggered a bearish trend.
- Technical indicators point to a potential decline to $70,000, with a 22% drop from today’s levels.
- The 50-day SMA near $90,000 and liquidity above it are major barriers to a rally.
- Market sentiment hinges on upcoming Fed policy and tech earnings, while global market volatility adds risk.
Investors should monitor the support ladder at $80,000, $75,000, and $70,000, as well as the moving average crossover expected next month.
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Categories: Market News, Tech News
