At a Glance
- Bitcoin remains below its 100-day moving average.
- Daily price action shows a corrective bounce, not a new bullish cycle.
- 4-hour chart consolidates in an ascending channel, requiring a breakout above $98K to signal a new leg.
Why it matters: Investors watch for a breakout that could change the market’s trajectory.
Bitcoin remains below its 100-day moving average, signaling a pause in its recent rally. Daily price action suggests a corrective bounce rather than a new bullish cycle, while the 4-hour chart shows consolidation within an ascending channel. Market participants are watching for a breakout above $98K to confirm a new upward leg.
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to trade below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 100-day MA of $94K acting as the first major dynamic resistance. The recent recovery attempt stalled precisely in this zone, reinforcing it as a key supply area rather than a reclaimed trend level. While the price still respects the broader rising channel formed after the sharp sell-off, this structure resembles a corrective bounce rather than a renewed bullish cycle.
The lack of strong follow-through after each push higher highlights hesitation from higher-timeframe buyers. A daily close and sustained acceptance above the 100-day MA would be required to materially improve the macro structure, whereas continued rejection keeps the risk of another downside rotation active. Thus, Bitcoin‘s daily trend remains cautious, with traders awaiting a decisive shift before committing to a bullish stance.
The 4-hour chart presents a more constructive but still incomplete picture. Bitcoin is consolidating within an ascending channel, repeatedly finding support at the lower boundary of $86K, which confirms the presence of an active buyers’ base at discounted levels. Each dip into demand has been met with responsive buying, yet upside attempts continue to struggle near internal resistance at $92K and $95K zones and the upper channel boundary.
Momentum remains relatively muted, and the price has not produced a decisive breakout with expansion in range or volume. Until Bitcoin can break and hold above the upper boundary of this channel at $98K, the structure should be viewed as consolidation rather than confirmation of a new bullish leg. The need for a breakout above $98K underscores the importance of a clear catalyst to shift the market’s direction.
From a derivatives and positioning perspective, the liquidation heatmap highlights a clear imbalance in liquidity distribution. A significant concentration of overhead liquidity remains clustered above the current price, particularly in the mid-$90K region, suggesting that short-side exposure is still vulnerable if the asset manages to push higher. In contrast, downside liquidity has already been partially absorbed during the recent decline, reducing the immediate probability of a sharp liquidation-driven sell-off.
This setup creates a scenario where downside appears more controlled, while upside acceleration would likely depend on a catalyst strong enough to force the price into these overhead liquidation zones. Until such a move materializes, on-chain data aligns with the broader picture of compression and preparation rather than confirmed expansion. The liquidity profile indicates that a significant rally would need to overcome the current resistance levels to trigger widespread liquidation.
On-chain metrics further corroborate the market’s current stance, showing a concentration of large-volume holders at levels below $86K and a relative lack of new inflows into the top tier of holders. This pattern suggests that institutional participation remains cautious, with most participants preferring to wait for clearer signals before committing significant capital. Consequently, the market’s directional bias stays neutral, leaning toward a consolidation phase.
Key takeaways for investors include: Bitcoin‘s daily trend remains below the 100-day MA, indicating a cautious stance; the 4-hour channel requires a breakout above $98K to signal a new bullish leg; liquidity pressure sits above current levels, meaning downside risk is lower while upside requires a strong catalyst; and on-chain data points to a neutral bias with limited institutional commitment.
These technical signals suggest that Bitcoin is in a transition phase, with higher-timeframe structure still corrective and lower-timeframe action showing signs of stabilization. The market’s current compression reflects a period of preparation, where traders await a decisive event to break prevailing resistance levels. Until such an event occurs, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a consolidation mode with limited upside potential.
Investors should monitor the 4-hour upper boundary at $98K, as a breakout could trigger a new bullish leg and potentially lift Bitcoin above its 100-day MA. Simultaneously, the liquidity profile indicates that any significant rally must overcome the current resistance to avoid triggering widespread liquidation. Until then, the market will likely stay in a neutral stance, with traders focusing on consolidation and risk management.
Exclusive to News Of Los Angeles readers, a secret partnership bonus allows registration for BingX Exchange rewards worth $1,500. The offer is limited time, and the disclaimer states that information found on News Of Los Angeles is that of writers quoted and does not represent the opinions of News Of Los Angeles on buying, selling, or holding investments. Users are advised to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
