At a Glance
- Bitcoin trades at $90,300, trapped in a $90K-$95K channel
- Dealer hedging is “mechanically suppressing” moves above $94K
- A daily close above $94,000 or below $88,000 is needed for a new trend
- Why it matters: Range-bound action could last until the large January options expiry
Bitcoin kicked off 2026 with a rally but has stalled beneath the $100,000 psychological barrier. Dealers actively selling rallies and buying dips are keeping the token pinned, while technical levels and an unfilled CME gap near $88K set the downside magnet.
Dealer Hedging Creates a Ceiling
Crypto Rover explains that market makers are hedging options exposure by trading against momentum. This flow has established:
- $90,000 as firm support
- $100,000 as the breakout wall
- A tightening range ahead of January expiry
> “Bitcoin isn’t weak; it’s mechanically suppressed.”
> – Crypto Rover
Until those options positions roll off, the sideways grind is likely to persist.
Technical Levels Traders Are Watching
Chartist Ali Martinez flags that a decisive daily close outside the $88K-$94K band is required to confirm direction. At pixel time, BTC sits just below the midpoint, having twice failed to reclaim $94K.
Analyst Ted notes the first CME futures gap around $90,700 has already been filled, leaving the next downside target at:
| Gap Zone | Price Range | Confluence |
|---|---|---|
| Lower CME gap | $88,000-$88,500 | Key support cluster |
Spot-led bounces keep appearing, but futures traders remain cautious, underscoring the two-speed market.
Key Takeaways
- Dealer hedging is capping moves above $94K until January options expiry
- A daily close above $94K or below $88K will signal the next directional move
- The unfilled CME gap at $88K remains a downside magnet
- Despite short-term rebounds, the wider declining trend from September 2025 is intact
Bitcoin’s immediate fate hinges on whether bulls can close above $94,000 before bears drag price toward the $88,000 gap.
