> At a Glance
> – Bitcoin reclaimed $90,000 as spot demand leads the recovery
> – Derivatives traders remain cautious with slower open-interest growth
> – Exchange balances hit 2018 lows at only 13.7% of total supply
> – Why it matters: The spot-led move lowers forced-liquidation risk and signals a healthier uptrend
Bitcoin’s climb back above $90,000 is being powered by spot-market purchases rather than leveraged bets, new data shows. The shift comes after heavy deleveraging in December and suggests a more sustainable recovery.
Moderate Expansion Phase
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. told News Of Los Angeles the market has entered a “moderate expansion” regime. His composite derivatives pressure index-tracking open-interest momentum, price momentum, divergence and acceleration-returned to positive after languishing near zero last month.
The gauge sits well below the +1.5 overheating mark, indicating controlled growth rather than speculative frenzy.
- Index aggregates 90-day Z-scores across four derivatives metrics
- Positive reading signals improving sentiment without euphoria
- Structure mirrors prior periods of steadier, spot-driven rallies
Spot vs. Derivatives Divergence
While Bitcoin added ~8% over the past week, open interest rose only modestly, creating negative price-OI divergence. The pattern is the inverse of mid-December, when leverage built even as prices slid.
Adler said this divergence:
- Reduces the chance of sudden long liquidations
- Shows traders are not aggressively chasing the move with borrowed funds
- Implies underlying bid comes from actual coin purchases
> “A stronger expansion would require both price and open interest to push higher together,” Adler noted, adding that a sharp OI spike without price support would mark a deterioration.
Supply Leaves Exchanges
Separate on-chain data reinforce the spot-demand narrative. Exchange balances have fallen to their lowest level since 2018, with just 13.7% of total BTC supply currently on trading platforms. Binance controls roughly 3.2% of circulating coins.
Netflow charts show consistent outflows, especially on December 22 and January 5, when large withdrawals occurred. Fewer deposits suggest holders are opting to store coins off-exchange rather than prepare for immediate selling.
| Snapshot | Figure |
|---|---|
| Exchange supply | 13.7% |
| Binance share | 3.2% |
| Outflow spikes | Dec 22, Jan 5 |
Key Takeaways
- Spot buyers, not leverage, are driving Bitcoin’s latest leg higher
- Derivatives positioning remains cautious, lowering liquidation risk
- Shrinking exchange supply underscores long-term holding behavior
The combination of restrained leverage and coin withdrawals paints a picture of gradual, demand-led price discovery rather than a speculative spike.
