> At a Glance
- Ethereum is holding $3,200 after reclaiming its 21-day moving average
- Exchange supply has dropped to under 16.5 million ETH, a multi-year low
- Spot ETF inflows have flipped positive, signaling renewed institutional appetite
- Why it matters: Tight supply plus rising ETF demand could set the stage for the next leg toward $3,900.
Ethereum is hovering near $3,200 and weekly volumes top $28 billion as traders eye a possible push to $3,900, energised by shrinking exchange reserves and positive ETF flows.
Technical Breakout
The ETH/BTC pair has closed multiple daily candles above the 21-day MA, flipping former resistance into support.
> Trader Michaël van de Poppe noted:
> “It broke above the 21-Day MA and held it as support.”
- Price has also bounced repeatedly from the 0.03-0.0325 BTC demand zone-support in place since late 2025.
- RSI is rising but not yet overbought, leaving room for extension.
On the USD pair, ETH has exited a months-long descending channel, reclaiming the $3,200 level that had capped rallies earlier.
Supply Squeeze
Exchange balances sit just below 16.5 million ETH, near the lowest figure in years.
| Metric | Current | vs. 2025 Peak |
|---|---|---|
| Exchange Supply | <16.5 M | Down ~30% |
| ETF Flows | Positive | Flipped Jan |
> Data from CryptoQuant shows the drop equates to diminished immediate sell pressure.
ETF Flows Reverse
After outflows dominated late 2025, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs have turned positive.
- Fresh institutional interest adds a demand layer beyond retail trading.
- Combined with tight supply, the shift underpins the current rally attempt.
Key Takeaways
- $3,200 is the short-term line in the sand; a sustained hold keeps $3,900 on the table.
- ETH/BTC above the 21-day MA hints at the first real uptrend since summer.
- Exchange outflows plus positive ETF flows equal a potential supply-demand imbalance.
With resistance-turned-support at $3,200 and Fibonacci targets pointing to $3,900, Ethereum bulls will need continued ETF inflow and shrinking exchange supply to fuel the next leg higher.
