At a Glance
- Ethereum is trading below key moving averages, yet on-chain activity shows early signs of stabilization.
- The daily chart indicates a medium-term downtrend with support at $2,600-$2,700.
- On-chain transaction counts are rising, suggesting a shift from speculative to organic usage.
- Why it matters: Investors should watch support levels and transaction trends for clues about a potential rebound.
Ethereum is currently in a broad sideways structure, with the spot price trading below the main trend-defining moving averages while on-chain activity shows early signs of stabilization. The market is in a neutral-to-cautious state. Downside risk remains present on the charts, but structural support zones and improving network usage keep the medium-term outlook open for a potential recovery once selling pressure exhausts.
Market Overview
On the daily timeframe, ETH has been rejected lower from the recent consolidation below the declining 100-day moving average, with the 200-day moving average still positioned higher and confirming a medium-term downtrend. The price is trading around the $2,900 region after another decisive rejection from the $3,400-$3,500 supply band, leaving the $2,600-$2,700 zone as the first major demand zone.
A sustained loss of the $2,700 area would increase the risk of a deeper move toward the $2,200 support area. The daily RSI has pulled back from neutral levels and is drifting toward oversold territory, signalling that momentum is bearish but also that the market is approaching a zone where downside extension may begin to slow if fresh sellers do not appear.
Technical Analysis
4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows ETH breaking below the rising trendline that had connected higher lows since the November bottom, effectively breaking the symmetrical triangle structure. The asset is now consolidating just under the former $3,000 support band, which has turned into short-term resistance. Repeated failures to reclaim this area would keep intraday pressure skewed toward the $2,800 level and, if weakness persists, down toward the major $2,500-$2,600 demand zone.
The 4-hour RSI has already printed oversold readings and is attempting to stabilize, suggesting that while intraday momentum is negative, the market may transition into a choppy consolidation phase rather than an immediate impulsive leg lower if the current short-term support zone holds.
On-Chain Activity
Looking at on-chain activity, Ethereum’s total transaction count and its 30-day EMA have been trending higher from the depressed levels seen in early 2025, even as the price has recently corrected from all-time highs back toward $2,900. This combination of declining price and rising transactional activity often reflects a shift from speculative excess toward more organic network usage, as weaker hands reduce exposure while a base of active users remains engaged.
If the current upturn in transaction counts persists or accelerates while price consolidates above the main demand zones, it would signal that fundamental network demand is absorbing supply. This is historically a constructive backdrop for a medium-term recovery. Failure of activity to hold these gains, by contrast, would argue for viewing the recent bounce as primarily technical rather than fundamentally supported.
Potential Outlook
- Support Levels: The $2,600-$2,700 zone remains the most critical. A breach could trigger a swing toward $2,200.
- Resistance Levels: The $3,000 band is now short-term resistance; a rebound here would test the $3,400-$3,500 supply band.
- On-Chain Indicator: Rising transaction counts provide a positive sign, but sustained growth is needed to confirm a recovery.
- Momentum: RSI readings suggest a bearish short-term bias, but oversold conditions may limit further downside.
Investors should monitor these levels closely. A move above $3,000 could open a new upward channel, while a collapse below $2,600 would reinforce a bearish bias.
Special Offer
SECRET PARTNERSHIP BONUS for News Of Los Angeles readers: Use this link to register and unlock $1,500 in exclusive BingX Exchange rewards (limited time offer). Disclaimer: Information found on News Of Los Angeles is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of News Of Los Angeles on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.
—
Key Takeaways
- Ethereum trades below major moving averages but shows signs of on-chain recovery.
- Daily and 4-hour charts confirm a medium-term downtrend with critical support at $2,600-$2,700.
- Rising transaction counts suggest a shift toward organic usage, supporting a potential rebound.
- Investors should watch for breaches of support or resistance levels and monitor RSI for momentum shifts.
