> At a Glance
> – ETH is pinned below $3,000 after repeated failed break-outs
> – Daily chart shows wide $2.7k-$3.5k range with $3.5k MA wall
> – 4-hour $3.1k “order block” rejected latest push
> – Why it matters: A sweep of fresh derivatives longs is likely unless bulls reclaim $3.5k quickly
Ethereum’s recovery has stalled near the psychological $3,000 mark and on-chain order flow is flashing warning signs.
Daily Chart Outlook
Price remains locked inside a $2.7k-$3.5k box. The 100- and 200-day moving averages converge near $3.5k, acting as dynamic resistance and capping every rally attempt.
- $3.5k reclaim = minimum condition for bull reversal
- $2.7k demand zone still the downside magnet
- Daily RSI is climbing but not yet overbought
Unless buyers flip $3.5k back to support, risk of rejection back toward mid-range or the $2.7k floor stays elevated.
Intraday Rejection
Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe shows ETH briefly poked a known bearish order block at $3.1k before sellers re-emerged.
| Key Metric | Current | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Local Resistance | $3.1k | Bearish order block |
| Local Support | $2.8k | Higher-low structure |
| 4-h RSI | Overbought | Short-term pullback cue |
The sequence of higher lows since mid-December keeps the intraday structure bullish, but another failure here targets $2.8k support.
Derivatives Hint at Positioning Trap
Open-interest has rebounded sharply after months of decline, showing traders are opening fresh longs ahead of an expected breakout.
- Rising OI + flat price = potential positioning squeeze
- Momentum remains fragile while fundamentals unchanged
- Flush risk grows if $3k collapses under selling pressure
Key Takeaways
- $3.5k is the line in the sand for trend reversal
- $2.8k is the first intraday support on rejection
- Derivatives positioning raises odds of a long squeeze
For now ETH remains range-bound; direction will hinge on which side of the $2.7k-$3.5k bracket gives way first.
