At a Glance
- Ethereum’s 3-day chart shows a MACD golden cross plus 9/21 MA crossover that preceded prior rallies of 51%-89%
- ETH trades at $3,140 with $22B daily volume, fluctuating between $2,600-$3,350 for two months
- Analysts eye $3,200 breakout as gateway to $3,300-$4,000 range
- Why it matters: Historical pattern suggests potential for significant price gains if current setup repeats
Ethereum is flashing a technical signal that has preceded major price rallies in recent cycles. The 3-day chart now displays both a MACD golden cross and a 9/21 moving average crossover, a combination that has triggered substantial gains three times since 2024.
Familiar Pattern Emerges
The current setup mirrors conditions that led to impressive rallies:
- September 2024: 61% gain
- April 2025: 51% gain
- July 2025: 89% gain
Each rally began after the MACD turned positive, followed by the short-term moving average crossing above the longer one. The pattern started forming on December 18, 2025, with the crossover now confirmed and MACD momentum heading higher.
“On the 3-day chart for $ETH,” noted Lark Davis on January 12, 2026. “The last 3 times we got a MACD golden cross followed by the 9/21 MA golden cross, ETH delivered face-melting gains. A similar setup is forming again.”
Current Price Action
ETH trades near $3,140 with daily volume reaching $22 billion. While up slightly on the day, the cryptocurrency remains 3% lower over the past week. The price has oscillated between $2,600 and $3,350 throughout the previous two months.
Key levels traders are monitoring:
- Resistance: $3,200 breakout could open path to $3,300-$4,000
- Support: Major short-term support sits around $3,000
CPI data released today is expected to increase volatility. CW8900 highlighted that ETH “still has CME gap around 3k,” suggesting this level could act as a magnet short-term. Lennaert Snyder outlined potential trades for both directions based on price reactions to $3,170 and $3,060 levels.
ETH/BTC Rotation Gains Momentum
Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin is drawing attention from analysts. Alex Wacy’s chart shows ETH/BTC breaking out of a multi-year downtrend similar to the 2015-2018 pattern that preceded a major ETH surge.
The ETH/BTC ratio currently sits at 0.0343, with chart analysis pointing toward a potential move to 0.15 if the breakout sustains. Wacy characterized this as “the biggest $ETH rotation in 8 years,” noting it “tests patience, not intelligence.”
The current market structure includes significantly more capital and larger institutional players compared to the 2015-2018 cycle, potentially amplifying any sustained rotation.
Institutional Outlook
Standard Chartered has revised its long-term Ethereum projections upward. The bank now targets:
- $30,000 by 2029
- $40,000 by 2030
Kyledoops shared these projections while clarifying they represent long-term views based on Ethereum’s role in on-chain finance rather than short-term trading calls or cycle timing predictions.
The bullish technical setup combined with increasing institutional adoption creates a compelling narrative for Ethereum’s potential trajectory, though past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
Key Takeaways
Ethereum’s chart pattern has historically preceded significant rallies, with the most recent similar setup in July 2025 leading to an 89% gain. The current technical alignment, combined with ETH/BTC rotation momentum and institutional price targets, suggests potential for substantial moves if key resistance levels break.
Traders should monitor the $3,200 level closely, as a sustained break above this resistance could accelerate momentum toward the $3,300-$4,000 range. The $3,000 support level remains critical for maintaining the current bullish structure.
