> At a Glance
> – BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says U.S. control of Venezuelan oil may suppress crude prices
> – Lower energy costs could let Washington run looser fiscal policy and expand credit
> – Hayes argues rising dollar liquidity would push Bitcoin higher
> – Why it matters: Traders are watching whether geopolitical oil moves translate into crypto momentum
Arthur Hayes believes the U.S. seizure of Venezuelan oil assets last weekend could indirectly boost crypto markets by keeping a lid on crude prices and encouraging aggressive money creation.
Trump Confirms Maduro Custody
President Donald Trump told reporters on January 3 that Nicolás Maduro and his wife had been detained after violence in Caracas. He added that Washington would be “strongly involved” in Venezuela’s oil sector, a comment that ricocheted across trading channels.
Despite the headline shock, Bitcoin slipped only modestly, from just below $91,000 to about $89,000, before rebounding to a multi-week high near $92,000 by January 4. Trump-themed tokens outperformed as speculators piled in.
Hayes: Cheap Gas Means Easy Money
In a long social-media thread, Hayes said low gasoline prices matter more to U.S. voters than most policy debates. He reasoned that cheaper oil removes a key brake on politicians’ appetite to print money, since energy-driven inflation fears fade.
> “Bitcoin’s rise directly results from money printing.”
Arthur Hayes, referencing his own “USD Liquidity Conditions Index,” contrasted Bitcoin’s sensitivity to dollar expansion with the waning appeal of government bonds when energy costs are volatile.
Market Snapshot
Bitcoin traded between $92,000 and $94,600 on January 4, up roughly:
- 1% on the day
- 7% over the week
- 5% on the month
Futures markets are pricing in additional Venezuelan supply rather than disruption. If that view holds, Hayes sees scope for continued loose fiscal policy that could lift risk assets.
Key Takeaways
- U.S. control of Venezuelan crude may cap oil prices
- Lower energy costs can embolden fiscal expansion
- Hayes views Bitcoin as a direct beneficiary of rising dollar liquidity
- For now, traders are focused on liquidity flows more than geopolitical noise
The calm crypto response suggests markets are waiting to see whether Washington’s energy grab translates into the kind of unchecked credit growth Hayes expects.
