At a Glance
- Subsidies for ACA enrollees expired overnight, locking in higher premiums for millions.
- Premiums set to rise 114% in 2026 for over 20 million subsidized enrollees.
- An estimated 4.8 million may drop coverage when subsidies end.
- Why it matters: Millions will face higher health costs at the start of 2026.
The expiration of expanded Obamacare subsidies has locked in higher health insurance premiums for more than 20 million Affordable Care Act enrollees, beginning on January 1, 2026.
Expiration of Subsidies and Rising Costs
KFF analysis shows an average premium rise of 114% for the more than 20 million subsidized enrollees.
The subsidies were first introduced in 2021 as a temporary measure to help Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic, and Democrats extended them to the start of 2026.
Political Fallout and Government Shutdown
The expiration followed a 43-day government shutdown that Democrats had pushed to keep the subsidies in place.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., slammed the expiring subsidies as a “boondoggle” as the shutdown approached its two-week mark with no end in sight.
Impact on Enrollees
The change affects a diverse cross-section of Americans who do not get insurance from an employer and do not qualify for Medicaid or Medicare, including self-employed workers, small business owners, farmers and ranchers.
- Stan Clawson – freelance filmmaker and adjunct professor, paid $350 a month last year, now nearly $500.
- Katelin Provost – single mom, paid $85 a month, now nearly $750.
| Enrollee | Premium Jan 2025 | Premium Jan 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Stan Clawson | $350 | $500 |
| Katelin Provost | $85 | $750 |
Katelin Provost said:
> “It really bothers me that the middle class has moved from a squeeze to a full suffocation, and they continue to just pile on and leave it up to us.”
> “I’m incredibly disappointed that there hasn’t been more action.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson stated:
> “The expiring Obamacare subsidies are a “boondoggle”.”
Chad Bruns said:
> “Both Republicans and Democrats have been saying for years, oh, we need to fix it. Then do it. They need to get to the root cause, and no political party ever does that.”
Future Outlook and Congressional Action
An analysis by the Urban Institute and Commonwealth Fund projected that higher premiums could prompt 4.8 million Americans to drop coverage in 2026.
The window to select and change plans is still open until Jan. 15 in most states, so the final effect on enrollment is yet to be determined.
Key Takeaways
- Subsidies expired overnight, locking in higher premiums for millions.
- Premiums expected to rise 114% in 2026 for over 20 million subsidized enrollees.
- An estimated 4.8 million may drop coverage when subsidies end.
The expiration of the subsidies underscores the urgency of congressional action to address rising health costs for millions of Americans.
