Bitcoin whales have unloaded 220,000 BTC over the past year, the steepest decline since early 2023, while on-chain indicators signal the market is still far from a cycle top.
At a Glance
- Whale addresses holding 1K-10K BTC shed 220K coins in 12 months
- MVRV ratio sits at 1.6, well below the 4.5+ levels seen at prior peaks
- Analysts project a cycle bottom between $38K-$50K in about 267 days
- Why it matters: The combined selling pressure and low valuation metric suggest Bitcoin could retest lower support before the next major rally
Large wallets are leading the current retreat. According to CryptoQuant data, addresses controlling between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoin have reduced their collective balance by 220,000 coins since January 2025. The scale of the drawdown matches behavior observed in 2021-2022, when whale holdings fell by more than 822,000 BTC ahead of that cycle’s peak.
Whale Holdings Show Steep Decline
The exodus marks the fastest decline among this cohort since early 2023. During growth phases such as 2020-2021 and 2023-2024, similar wallets added over 400,000 BTC, highlighting the current shift in sentiment.
CryptoBusy highlighted the trend on social media:
> “Bitcoin whale behavior is showing a clear shift! Data shows addresses holding 1K-10K $BTC are down 220K $BTC year over year, marking the fastest decline since early 2023.”
Wallets in this band are typically tied to institutional or high-net-worth investors whose moves often precede broader price direction.
MVRV Ratio Signals Room Before Peak
The Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) ratio remains subdued. The metric compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the average price at which all coins last moved. Readings above 4.5 have coincided with major cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021. The current value of about 1.6 implies the market has not entered the overheated territory that historically marks a final blow-off phase.
CW8900, an on-chain analyst, commented:
> “The real rally is approaching, and the end of the cycle will occur after the MVRV indicator enters the red zone.”
Until that threshold is reached, the data suggests upside potential remains, even if short-term volatility skews lower.
Price Outlook Points to Lower Support
Chartist Ali Martinez predicts the cycle bottom will form roughly 267 days from now, with a target window of $38,000-$50,000. Historical drawdowns offer context:
| Year | Peak-to-Trough Decline | Duration |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | ≈ 83% | ~12 mos |
| 2022 | ≈ 77% | ~12 mos |
A 70% pullback from the projected cycle high of $126,000 would place Bitcoin near $37,500, aligning with the lower end of the anticipated support band.
In the nearer term, increased selling could push price toward $70,000 before testing those deeper levels.
Exchange Flows Hint at Accumulation
Despite the broader whale retreat, exchange data shows large wallets on Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken were net buyers yesterday. CW8900 noted:
> “They then pushed the price down with small sell volume.”
Such tactics can indicate continued accumulation while keeping prices range-bound.
Market Moves and Technical Signals
Bitcoin briefly touched $92,400 earlier in the week before pulling back to around $91,500. It currently trades at $92,000, down 2% over the past seven days, per CoinGecko. The relative strength index (RSI) has slipped below 60, a level some traders view as a shift in trend momentum.
Traders are also eyeing the upcoming U.S. CPI release, which could inject fresh volatility across risk assets.
Key Takeaways
- The 220,000 BTC reduction among 1K-10K addresses is the fastest since early 2023
- MVRV under 2 indicates valuation remains below historical cycle peaks
- A 70% drawdown from an expected $126K top points to sub-$40K support
- Exchange flow data shows select whales may be positioning for another leg up once macro conditions clear
With whale selling outpacing prior accumulation and valuation metrics still modest, the stage appears set for Bitcoin to seek a lower base before the next major uptrend resumes.
