> At a Glance
> – XRP trades at $2.15 after a 12% weekly gain
> – The 50-week SMA near $2.50 has marked trend shifts in 2018, 2022, and 2024
> – Analogies to 2016 setup and a four-phase cycle model hint at a possible $21.5 target
> – Why it matters: A sustained break above $2.50 could reignite the bull run, while failure risks fresh downside
XRP’s seven-day surge has traders locked on a single number: $2.50. With the token at $2.15, that technical line in the sand may decide whether momentum accelerates or fizzles.
The $2.50 Pivot
The 50-week simple moving average, now near $2.50, has served as a historical switch. Losing it preceded major directional changes in 2018, 2022, and 2024; XRP slipped below it again on October 10, 2025.
Analyst Steph Is Crypto emphasized the stakes:
> “A weekly close above $2.50 would open the door for the bull market to resume.”
Until that happens, caution dominates trading desks.
Echoes of 2016
ChartNerdTA sees a replay of 2016: a double-top formation, drop below support, and a Stochastic RSI reset-all followed by the 2017 explosion. The same ingredients are present now, setting up 2026 for a potential repeat.
| Cycle Phase | 2014-2017 Outcome | 2025-2026 Setup |
|---|---|---|
| Sideways accumulation | Multi-year base | Just completed |
| Phase 4 entry | Breakout trigger | Claimed in early 2026 |
| Extension target | 6.618 Fib at $21.5 | Same projection active |
Supply, Volume, ETF Hopes
Exchange balances remain low while spot volume spiked above $2.12, and ETF demand adds potential fuel. CryptoWZRD noted strength in both USD and BTC pairs:
> “Holding above $2.10 would offer further upside.”
Yet short-term signals hint at cooling, so traders are guarding the $2.10 support as a backstop.
Key Takeaways
- The $2.50 level, coinciding with the 50-week SMA, is the line to watch
- Historical analogies and a four-phase model both point to sizable upside if resistance folds
- Low exchange supply and ETF inflows provide underlying tailwinds
- Immediate support sits at $2.10; losing it could invite deeper selling
Whether XRP can reclaim the pivotal zone may set the tone for the next major move.
