At a Glance
- XRP is trading at $2.10 and must clear $2.26 to avoid a deeper drop
- A rejection at the $2.26 Fibonacci level could send price toward $2.03 or $1.65
- Exchange supply has fallen below 2 billion tokens from over 4 billion in late 2025
- Why it matters: The next few trading sessions may decide whether XRP retests yearly highs or slides toward the $1.40-$1.20 zone
XRP is hovering near $2.10 as traders watch a narrow technical band between $2.26 resistance and $2.03 support. Analysts say a rejection at the upper bound could trigger a multi-step decline that ends near $1.65, while a breakout would invalidate the current bearish setup.
Corrective Pattern Puts $2.26 in Focus
Crypto analyst CasiTrades told News Of Losangeles that XRP is carving out a textbook A-B-C corrective structure on the intraday chart.
- Wave A topped at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $2.23
- Wave B bottomed at $2.11
- Wave C is now approaching the 0.618 retracement at $2.26
“If this truly is a Wave 2 correction, we should see price reject near the .618 retracement around ~$2.26,” CasiTrades said.
A clean rejection would open the door to $2.11 and $2.03, followed by a projected Wave 3 decline toward $1.65. The count breaks if XRP prints a new local high above $2.41, the analyst added.
Volume and RSI Leave Room for Maneuver
XRP’s 24-hour volume stands above $4 billion, according to CoinGecko. The token is down 2% in the past day and 1% over the past week, yet the Relative Strength Index sits at 61, leaving space for another push before overbought conditions kick in.
Traders are now waiting to see whether price can tag the $2.26 resistance and how it reacts once there. The outcome is likely to set the short-term trend.
Deeper Pullback Scenarios Target $1.20-$1.40
EGRAG CRYPTO outlined two historical drawdown levels if the current structure mirrors previous cycles:
- A 31% decline from local highs
- A 47% decline from local highs
These metrics place potential lows in the $1.40-$1.20 band. Even so, the analyst stressed that “long term, nothing is bearish in XRP’s fundamentals or structure.”
A separate weekly chart from Ali Martinez flashed a fresh sell signal this week, ending a buy signal that had been in place since early 2025.
Institutional Pipeline Remains Active
Behind the price action, Ripple continues to expand its regulatory footprint:
- The company secured preliminary approval for an e-money license in Luxembourg
- An application for a Crypto Asset Service Provider license under MiCA rules is pending in the EU
Once granted, the licenses would let Ripple offer regulated payment services across the entire European Economic Area.
ETF Flows Buck Short-Term Caution
Spot XRP-linked exchange-traded funds absorbed more than $10 million in net inflows on January 14, pushing cumulative inflows to roughly $1.26 billion, per SoSoValue data. The fresh buying arrives even as technical analysts warn of near-term downside.
On-chain data shows that the amount of XRP held on exchanges has dropped below 2 billion tokens, down from over 4 billion in late 2025. The decline signals that holders have moved supply off trading venues, potentially limiting immediate sell pressure.
Key Takeaways
- $2.26 is the line in the sand for the current Wave 2 correction; a break above $2.41 would invalidate the bearish Elliott count
- Failure to clear resistance exposes $2.03, $1.65, and possibly the $1.40-$1.20 range
- Despite short-term caution, long-term analysts see no structural weakness in XRP’s fundamentals
- Institutional inflows and shrinking exchange supply provide a counterweight to bearish technical signals
The next trading sessions should determine whether XRP can shrug off the corrective pattern or begin a deeper retracement toward the mid-$1 area.
