In the weeks leading up to the 2025 midterms, a new political battleground has emerged: the hearts and minds of men aged 18 to 29. While Republicans aim to lock in former President Donald Trump’s gains, Democrats are racing to win back a segment that has shown growing discontent.
Democrats Make Headway in Young-Man Voter Base
In last month’s elections, three high-profile Democrats-Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, and Zohran Mamdani in New York City-outperformed the party’s historic struggles with young men. Each candidate focused on affordability, a theme that resonated with voters who had previously leaned toward Trump.
NBC News exit polls reported that Mamdani, Spanberger, and Sherrill each captured between 7 % and 9 % of former Trump voters. The three campaigns also improved the Democratic share of the under-30 electorate relative to the 2024 presidential nominee, Kamala Harris. These gains are seen by many as a sign that the Democratic Party can still appeal to men who feel left behind.
Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, expressed optimism after the November elections. “I never want to hear again that the Democratic Party has a problem with young men,” Martin told reporters.
Republican Strategy Centers on Trump’s Appeal
Republicans are betting on the president’s economic narrative to mobilize young men. A senior Republican strategist, who requested anonymity, said the party’s “ecosystem is just a little bit stronger in this space.” He added that the midterms will be decided by voters’ attitudes toward Trump and the economy, predicting sentiment will improve as Trump’s agenda fully sets in.
The strategist highlighted job prospects, artificial intelligence, housing affordability, and personal relationships as key concerns. “There’s a lot of folks who feel that they are not where they should be, they’re falling behind,” he said. “Young men are especially there when you look at job prospects, AI, there’s uncertainty in general. And you add in the fact that you can’t buy a house, you can’t find a girlfriend. A lot of folks look to Trump for solutions.”
A senior GOP Senate aide echoed this view, stating that Republicans “are just hoping Trump does it” for disaffected young men. He warned that without the president’s presence on the ticket, turnout could falter.
Youth Sentiment and Economic Context
A Yale Youth Poll released this month found that Trump’s approval among young voters has largely eroded. Only 34 % of voters aged 18 to 22 approved of Trump, and 32 % of those aged 23 to 29. In contrast, last year Trump had won 42 % of the under-30 electorate.
Economic factors appear to drive this shift. Youth unemployment for ages 16 to 24 was 10.8 % in July, up from the previous year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an 8.3 % unemployment rate for ages 20 to 24 in November, down from 9.2 % in September but still the highest since 2021. Harvard’s Youth Poll noted that roughly 40 % of those under 30 were “barely getting by” financially.
Christian G., a 25-year-old independent from Clifton, New Jersey, said disappointment with the economy led him to switch from Trump to Sherrill. “I feel like I expected certain things to be improved or certain things to become more affordable, and it did the exact opposite,” G. said in a focus group observed by NBC News. “I would say for me it is kind of a testament to how, I guess, trust was lost over the year.”
Democratic Efforts to Reach Men in New Ways
At a symposium organized by The Lafayette Company-a conservative communications firm-Senator Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) urged Democrats to speak directly to men. He said, “It’s OK to reach out to men. Talk to men. Talk about men being men.” Gallego also noted a fear of being “canceled” for addressing the topic.
Virginia Democrat Josh Thomas, who spoke at the same event, laughed about the idea of creating a left-wing version of Joe Rogan. “I’m laughing because it ain’t that hard if you’re being yourself,” Thomas said. He questioned whether donor funds should build a new ecosystem or adapt to existing ones, but emphasized the importance of authentic male voices.
Mamdani’s campaign strategy exemplified this approach. The 34-year-old Democratic socialist won young men by roughly 40 points over former Governor Andrew Cuomo. He leveraged high-profile podcast appearances on “Flagrant” and “The Adam Friedland Show,” noting that many New Yorkers discovered him through those platforms. Mamdani stressed the need to stop treating young people with condescension and to speak directly about affordability, which he said is the difference between living independently and staying at home.
He also linked the cost of living to male loneliness and alienation, arguing that the crisis of cost “denied so many people the engagement with their own city and the sense of themselves as being someone who does more than just exist between work and home.” Mamdani is planning more free or low-cost events to encourage participation.
State-Level Initiatives Target Male Issues
Beyond federal races, state leaders are taking action. Maryland Governor Wes Moore announced an initiative to hire more male teachers. California Governor Gavin Newsom signed executive orders to address male suicide and launched a “California Men’s Service Challenge.” Thomas noted that he had authored legislation to create Virginia’s first governor’s advisory board on boys’ and men’s issues.
The Broader Political Landscape
Senator James Lankford (R-Okla.) told NBC News at the symposium that Trump has sought to bolster the standing of young men but has not spoken specifically about them beyond celebrating excellence and hard work. Lankford said he no longer hears much about “toxic masculinity,” a concept conservatives have long criticized. The right has sharpened its critique of diversity initiatives, claiming they hamper prospects for younger white men.
A longtime pro-Trump operative warned that Republicans will capitalize on diversity policies that a future Democratic nominee might adopt. “I don’t think we’ve lost them,” the operative said. “I still think our party will be the one that has a more appealing vision.” He added that while it is uncertain whether disaffected young men will turn out for random Republicans in the midterms, the question remains whether they will be present in 2028.
Key Takeaways
- Democratic candidates Spanberger, Sherrill, and Mamdani improved the party’s standing among young men, capturing 7 %-9 % of former Trump voters.
- Republican strategy hinges on Trump’s economic narrative, with a senior strategist citing job prospects, AI, and housing as key motivators.
- Youth sentiment has shifted against Trump, with approval dropping to 34 % (18-22) and 32 % (23-29) from 42 % last year.
- Economic hardship-high unemployment and rising cost of living-drives many young men to seek alternatives.
- Democratic leaders are experimenting with new outreach methods, including podcasts and state-level initiatives targeting male issues.
The coming midterms will test whether Democrats can sustain their gains among young men or whether Republicans, buoyed by Trump’s appeal, will reclaim the demographic. The outcome will shape not only the immediate political landscape but also the long-term focus of both parties on this critical segment of the electorate.
